It’s very early in the process, but there are certain prospects being mentioned in 2013 NFL Draft discussions that make me wonder if we’re watching the same games. At the same time, there are other players who have rarely been mentioned at all. Time to set the record straight. Here are the most overrated and underrated prospects heading into the 2012 college football season.

QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

There isn’t a quarterback more overrated for the 2013 NFL Draft than Lance Jones. Many people thought that his returning to school was a good call and an opportunity to improve upon glaring weaknesses in his game. He has been working with quarterback guru George Whitfield, so maybe there is some hope but Jones was so bad to finish the season that I thought he should leave for the NFL Draft while he still has the chance Keep Reading...]]>  

It’s very early in the process, but there are certain prospects being mentioned in 2013 NFL Draft discussions that make me wonder if we’re watching the same games. At the same time, there are other players who have rarely been mentioned at all. Time to set the record straight. Here are the most overrated and underrated prospects heading into the 2012 college football season.

OVERRATED

QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

There isn’t a quarterback more overrated for the 2013 NFL Draft than Lance Jones. Many people thought that his returning to school was a good call and an opportunity to improve upon glaring weaknesses in his game. He has been working with quarterback guru George Whitfield, so maybe there is some hope but Jones was so bad to finish the season that I thought he should leave for the NFL Draft while he still has the chance to get drafted. He has a killer arm and produces ridiculous statistics in the Oklahoma offense, but if his issue of soiling his pants every time he feels pressure doesn’t improve, it may be time for the Sooners to move on to the Blake Bell era.

QB Aaron Murray, Georgia

Murray is a good, athletic college quarterback but he just doesn’t rub me as a great NFL prospect. He is undersized (listed at 6’1, which means that he is at best 6’1) and way too jumpy in the pocket. His jumpiness and inconsistency reminds me far too much of Rex Grossman (who was also 6’1 and productive at an SEC school). It’s difficult to be so hard on him because he plays tough but I would not be confident taking him in the first 2 rounds of the draft.

RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin

This is a toughy that I will probably get some hate mail for. Montee Ball will become a good NFL running back, but good is as high as I can go. He has nice patience and surprising shiftiness, solid hands and doesn’t cough up the ball, but he lacks elite breakaway speed and his offensive line was just so damn good last year that Ball went into the endzone or gained a large chunk of his yardage often untouched. He is solid, but I fail to see anything special.

OT Xavier Nixon, Florida

Xavier Nixon automatically gets mentioned in NFL Draft circles because he has 22 career starts at a school like Florida, including 5 starts his true freshman year – when he became the first true freshman to start at left tackle for the Gators since 1992. Add in the fact that he was a former 5 star recruit and what more do you need to see? How about some actual games? Nixon was solid in his first season (where he was protecting the non-blind side of Tim Tebow) but he has failed to improve since then and was even benched last season. Courtney Upshaw did some things to him that are just too dirty to be repeated here. If he struggles in the slightest, don’t be surprised if Florida benches him in favor of freshman D.J. Humphries – who is the most athletic looking tackle that I’ve ever seen in person.

DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

Don’t get me wrong, Jeffcoat has shown some flashes and is still very raw. But fact is, some are ranking him as the top defensive end prospect and a top 5 pick, which is flat out ridiculous based on tape. Jackson was easily shut down when matched up with the top tackles that he faced all season in Mitchell Schwartz and Luke Joeckel. In fact, on one occasion Schwartz pushed Jackson 10 yards back as if he had on roller skates. Actually, maybe Jackson would have been pushed back less if he had on roller skates. Either way, looking at the stats and recruiting rankings, one would think that Jeffcoat looked like a stud last year. While I don’t deny that he has 1^st round potential, his stiffness and inability to anchor make what he has done in his career not worthy of being a top 15 pick – yet.

DE Margus Hunt, Southern Methodist

I actually like Margus Hunt, but this is a situation of people taking it to the next level. Hunt is a special teams phenomenon with his uncanny kick-blocking ability. As of right now though, that’s all he is. Up until the Pittsburgh game when he stepped in due to injury, he wasn’t even a starter. That game he did look phenomenal but that is pretty much his entire resume as a defender. Monitor him this year for sure but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

UNDERRATED

RB Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt

Zac Stacy is a tough runner against tough competition. He rushed for 1,200 yards in the SEC behind Vanderbilt’s offensive line – that is saying something. That’s like the equivalent of rushing for 2,000 yards behind Alabama’s stud offensive line. Stacy fits the mold of a short, low center of gravity running back with power and quickness. He’s still not quite a 1^st round talent but the fact that he very rarely is mentioned in NFL Draft circles needs to change.

OG Andrew Norwell, Ohio State

Playing in between Mike Adams and Michael Brewster, it’s not surprising that Norwell was overlooked last season. Even I tuned in to Michigan State versus Ohio State in order to watch Michael Brewster go head to head with Jerel Worthy. What I found out instead was that Andrew Norwell was clearly the best offensive lineman on the Ohio State team and did not lose one battle to Worthy all game. In fact, from the looks of it he hardly broke a sweat. Keep an eye on Andrew Norwell this year.

DE James Gayle, Virginia Tech

On the attacking Virginia Tech defense, it’s tough for one specific player to stand out, but for me the Hokies left defensive end James Gayle did just that. He fires off like a canon with active hands, a plus motor, and a mean streak. He doesn’t possess a great bull-rush and isn’t particularly overpowering in run defense but James Gayle deserves to be mentioned with the likes of Jeffcoat, Lemonier, Montgomery, Mingo, Jenkins, and Okafor.

DE/LB/DT Roosevelt Nix, Kent State

At 6’0 240, I honestly have no idea what position that Nix will play in the NFL – but he will play. His production is just uncanny. He was the first freshman to ever be named MAC defensive player of the year when he racked up 20 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. His encore sophomore year wasn’t much worse, with 17 tackles for loss and 3 forced fumbles. Most of this, may I add, as a 240 pound interior defensive lineman. It’s not just the competition either, Nix had 2 tackles for loss and a sack against Alabama. The guy can play, the only question is where.

CB Bud Noel, Wake Forest

When a redshirt freshman is his teams’ leading solo tackler and one of the national leaders in pass breakups yet is very rarely mentioned in NFL Draft scouting circles, there is something wrong. Merrill (aka Bud) Noel may just be a redshirt sophomore but if he repeats his freshman performance he’ll be the talk of the town come next April if he decides to declare. Scouting cornerbacks on television is tough, but Noel stands out.

CB/S Ahmad Dixon, Baylor

One of the surest tacklers in college football, Dixon has been head and shoulders better than any other defender on the Baylor Bears defense. What’s funny is that watching the Baylor getting picked apart, you’ll notice that it is very rarely on Dixon. He is a great football player who might just be the slot cornerback in the Charles Woodson mold that NFL defensive coordinators are longing for. He was one of the highest rated players to ever choose Baylor out of high school and has exceeded expectations.

CB/S Tyrann Mathieu, LSU

It’s sad that I have to list one of the biggest defensive playmakers that the college game has seen in years as underrated. The Honey Badger can change the tone of an entire defense. If you look up “swagger” in the dictionary, I’m pretty sure that you’ll see Mathieu. He may be lucky to measure at 5’9 but it certainly hasn’t held him back playing in the toughest college football conference. His spot in the NFL will be as a solid run support nickel cornerback or as a safety. The fact that some have him falling out of round two is upsetting; I wouldn’t bat an eyelash if a team wanted to take him in the top 10. He is a gamechanger with a nose for the football and a desire to not just execute plays, but make them.

So there you have some of the players that I feel are either receiving too much NFL Draft attention or too little at this point in the evaluation process. For more notes on 2013 prospects, feel free to check out my Google document with over 200 prospects covered: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agp_TgJnjBoedGpaX1NtTjFMYlpRc3V0LVNVeWlGN3c#gid=13

Enough with the high-fives! Enough with the butting of heads! Every single pick is not going to be a slam dunk. On the other end of the spectrum, even the slam dunks aren’t slam dunks. In fact, sometimes a slam dunk is a layup. Other times the layup is a 3 point shot, or a half court prayer with 1 second left was traveling. At some point in that metaphor it got out of control, but you get the point.

This was a really strange year though, in that every pick was terrible. Look away if you’re hoping for unicorns and lollipops in regards to how your team did in the 1st round. You all suck. Everyone fails. Here’s exactly why every pick so far in the NFL Draft will 100% without a doubt be a giant JaMarcus Russell belly-flop.

1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB Andrew Luck, Keep Reading...]]>  

Enough with the high-fives! Enough with the butting of heads! Every single pick is not going to be a slam dunk. On the other end of the spectrum, even the slam dunks aren’t slam dunks. In fact, sometimes a slam dunk is a layup. Other times the layup is a 3 point shot, or a half court prayer with 1 second left was traveling. At some point in that metaphor it got out of control, but you get the point.

This was a really strange year though, in that every pick was terrible. Look away if you’re hoping for unicorns and lollipops in regards to how your team did in the 1st round. You all suck. Everyone fails. Here’s exactly why every pick so far in the NFL Draft will 100% without a doubt be a giant JaMarcus Russell belly-flop.

1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford. Are you kidding me? This guy is way too perfect. Prototype size and Peyton Manning intangibles? Can you say: neck injury waiting to happen? And when was the last time the best player in the NFL was also the nerdiest one? Did you see the amount of teeth that he showed while smiling? This guy has no chance in the NFL. GRADE: F

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor. If Andrew Luck is Peyton Manning (which he obviously isn’t, because I gave that pick an F) then that makes Robert Griffin III = Ryan Leaf. How could the Redskins have not seen this? First of all, how is Mike Shanahan even going to have ample time to coach him? Just saying his name takes about 30 minutes: “Robert Griffin the Third.” Not exactly great use of practice time, right? And think about his receivers – what if they’re open in the end zone, how will they let him know? Saying his name takes so long, by the time they finish with the “Robert” the play is over. I just don’t know what the Redskins were thinking trading three 1^st round picks for this guy. GRADE: F

3. CLEVELAND BROWNS: RB Trent Richardson, Alabama. Cleveland has a terrible history with running backs going all the way back to Jim Brown (whom the team was named after). As we saw with picks 1 and 2 being Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf, this entire draft is déjà-vu (or a glitch in a matrix?). And if the terrible Jim Brown says that Trent Richardson is just ordinary, I believe him because he’s from the past and has seen the future. GRADE: F

4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: OT Matt Kalil, USC. There were several people citing how the Vikings needed to draft an offensive tackle in order to protect their fragile QB Christian Ponder. But if he’s fragile, what’s the point in even protecting him? To me, that just seems like putting a bandaid on someone with Type I osteogenesis imperfecta. What is this organization run by REAL Vikings or something? Nyuck nyuck nyuck. GRADE: F

5. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State. Even the excellent mustache of Shahid Khan can’t rationalize this pick. What were they thinking? His name is Blackmon and the quarterback is white! Are they trying to start a racial war? The first time in practice Blaine Gabbert throws a zig when Justin runs a zag, he’ll be like “hey Black-mon (in a Jamaican accent, silly Blaine!), you ran the wrong route” and the racial tension will be there forever. This can’t possibly work out. GRADE: F

6. DALLAS COWBOYS: CB Morris Claiborne, LSU. The selection wouldn’t be all that terrible if the Cowboys hadn’t given up 2 players in order to get him. What’s the point in drafting 1 cornerback when you can draft 2 cornerbacks in the 1^st and 2^nd round and double coverage everyone that Morris Claiborne was going to single cover? Claiborne may be good but he’s just one man. Why short-change yourself? GRADE: F

7. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: S Mark Barron, Alabama. The Tampa Bay Bucs are notorious for missing tackles. That’s what they do. What are the Buccaneers going to do when on the first practice Mark Barron is actually wrapping up ball carriers and preventing them from gaining extra yards? “Are you trying to show me up?” says Aqib Talib. Instant locker-room tension. Unbelievable. GRADE: F

8. MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M. I was ready to be like “finally, a good draft pick” when the Dolphins selected Ryan Tannehill. And then I saw his girlfriend. She is attractive, how is Ryan Tannehill going to stay focused on football? Just look at Tom Brady and supermodel wife Gisele. He married her in 2009 and hasn’t won a SINGLE Super Bowl since then. I rest my case. GRADE: F

9. CAROLINA PANTHERS: LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College. While Luke Kuechly is a good player, it just doesn’t make sense for him in Carolina. The team already has Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and James Anderson. Kuechly likes to get tackles (532 in his 3 years at Boston College) but what is he going to do when a player is already tackled? He’s not used to that happening. As a result, it will become a competitive “who can get the tackle first?” contest and that just isn’t going to end well. GRADE: F

10. BUFFALO BILLS: CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina. There will be no stopping the New England Patriots offense in the regular season. So why even try? This draft pick should have been a running back with no arms and no legs to whom they can hand the ball off and (due to the confusion as to whether he’s down or not) the Bills can milk the clock on one play until the game is over. Why has nobody thought of that idea yet? GRADE: F

11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: DT Dontari Poe, Memphis. This was actually the longest that I had liked a pick. Everything was looking great until he got up on the stage and touched faces with Roger Goodell. What is he gonna do when he gets to the AFC West, try and touch faces with Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Carson Palmer? Actually, if they are homophobic that may work. For now I’ll give this one an F, but unlike these other draft choices that grade can change. GRADE: F (for now)

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State. His last name is Cox. I don’t know if I have to say more, but I will. What are Eagles fans going to do when he does something good? With Reggie White they could chant “Reg-gie, Reg-gie, Reg-gie!” Chanting “COX COX COX COX!” is impossible (not to mention unsafe) and as a result, Fletcher will think that Philadelphia doesn’t like him and he will get unmotivated and depressed. GRADE: F

13. ARIZONA CARDINALS: WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame. Here’s a history lesson for you. The Cardinals have been in Arizona since 1988. Since then, they have had over 100 different wide receivers on their roster. Right now, they have only like 5 or 6. Maybe more. Point is, they all have died of dehydration. They’re playing in the desert! In fact, now that I think about it, it’s pretty irresponsible for the NFL to let them keep playing there with the receivers dropping like flies. Unless Michael Floyd is a camel, he has no chance. And Larry Fitzgerald wants to take him down with him. What a horrible human being! Call the cops! GRADE: F

14. ST. LOUIS RAMS: DT Michael Brockers, LSU. Have you seen how disproportionate Michael Brockers’s head is to the size of his body? A) How will they ever find a proper helmet size? and B) How do you know he doesn’t have a witch doctor head-shrinking spell cast on him? That’s an awfully huge risk to take. GRADE: F

15. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: DE Bruce Irvin, West Virginia. The Seahawks must have been viewing the game tape with sound turned off. If they had sound, they would have noticed that every time Bruce Irvin does something good, the crowd goes “BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!” Those people in West Virginia are mean. When he was drafted by Seattle, I saw their fans doing the same thing. There is only so much rejection a man can take. It’s no wonder he got arrested before the draft, he was crying out for help! You people make me sick. GRADE: F

16. NEW YORK JETS: DE Quinton Coples, UNC. Coples was getting paid at UNC and still couldn’t get motivated, what makes the Jets think that paying him less will result in his being motivated? Also, even if Coples does do well and decides to tear quarterbacks heads off – the plan backfires at practice. Actually, wait, the Jets quarterback is Mark Sanchez. Hmm, I’ll give them a generous F. GRADE: F

17. CINCINNATI BENGALS: CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama. It’s just unsafe how long his hair is. Not only can a hat not fit on it (which is already starting off your NFL career on the wrong foot) but no good player in the NFL has ever had that exact length of hair with his height, 40 time, and birthplace. What are the Bengals trying to do with this draft pick, reinvent the wheel? GRADE: F

18. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: LB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina. How can Melvin Ingram (pictured to the right)  succeed with 31 and a half inch arm length? It’s not just that offensive linemen with longer wingspans will place one hand on the helmet of Melvin Ingram while he flails his arms around without touching them – just think of the strain it puts on his family. The man can’t reach his own chinstrap or tie his own shoes. They can’t baby him forever! Plus, not only can a player effectively shut him down by un-tieing his shoelaces but how is the man going to eat? He can’t reach his mouth with the spoon. After his family stops feeding him, Melvin Ingram may starve to death. Bad scouting on the part of the San Diego Chargers. GRADE: F

19. CHICAGO BEARS: DE Shea McClellin, Boise State. Uhhh, the team is the Bears. Placing a human on the same team as Bears just seems dangerous. Sure, he can teach them sign language to communicate but how is the current defensive end Bear going to take to losing his spot on the depth chart? Now you have yourself an angry Bear. An angry Bear who knows sign language. Fan-freaking tastic. GRADE: F

20. TENNESSEE TITANS: WR Kendall Wright, Baylor. If the Titans did their homework, they would have found that Wright not only has 50% body fat, but his hands are about 8 and a half inches long. On my big screen TV, the football can sometimes be at least 9 inches big and using math that means it’s virtually impossible for him to ever catch the ball. It actually confusing how Wright was able to get his hands completely around cheeseburgers in order to get that obese. He must have had help from Robert Griffin the 1^st or 2^nd. GRADE: F

21. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse. This one seriously spells trouble. As everyone knows by now, Chandler Jones is the brother of UFC champion Jon “Bones” Jones. Well, it’s clear that Bill Belichick is a Rashad Evans fan. In order to get back at Jones for his brother defeating Evans last week, Belichick is likely drafting his brother Chandler in order to train him into a highly tuned athletic machine. Sounds crazy, you say? Good pick, right? Well, soon-after Jon and Chandler are at home, Jon is hogging the Gameboy for too long, and they get into a fight which goes too far. Jon falls down the stairs breaking his neck on impact. Chandler is charged with murder and the Patriots are short a 1st round draft pick. This is the type of scheme that only the evil genius Bill Belichick can think of. GRADE: F

22. CLEVELAND BROWNS: QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State. Aside from Andy Dalton last year, Boomer Esiason, and any other ginger, have you ever seen a ginger turn into a productive NFL quarterback? I rest my case. Also, he’s too old and not only will blending all of his food so it doesn’t hurt his teeth be a pain, but he’ll have to use the “Men’s room” every 5 minutes – finishing out a game will be nearly impossible so is it worth a 1st round pick for one drive per game? GRADE: F

23. DETROIT LIONS: OT Riley Reiff, Iowa. When did Matt Millen get re-hired? The Lions struck gold with Calvin Johnson so why not just get another Calvin Johnson? The only thing that is better than Megatron is two Megatrons the Lions seriously dropped the ball on this one. Also, Riley Reiff (pictured) has short arms I don’t think he can even get in a 3-point stance. GRADE: F

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: OG David DeCastro, Stanford. One of the best guard prospects in a while falling to the 24^th pick, how can that get an F? Easy. Mike Tomlin soon will say something along the lines of “I love DeCastro, I respect DeCastro.” As a result, all the Cuban fans in Pittsburgh will cause a ruckus over his claiming that he, too, loves Fidel Castro. After James Harrison concussing the entire Cleveland Browns and Rashard Mendenhall admitting that he made up 9/11, the NFL will need to act – and fire Mike Tomlin. It’s a sad story, really. GRADE: F

25. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: LB Dont’a Hightower, Alabama. While I could take the same approach as the Carolina Panthers about player to player conflict over who gets the tackles, that’s too easy. The problem with Hightower lies in the fact that the pick makes too much sense. Drafting a linebacker to stick at linebacker? Where is the genius in that? We’re talking Bill Belichick, the guy who drafted two running backs to the best offense in the NFL and two tight ends when people were like “No, don’t do it! Hernandez is too fast, Gronkowski is too good!” With suspicion that Belichick is losing his edge, he gets desperate and moves Dont’a Hightower to kicker. Who drafts a kicker in the 1^st round? Idiots. GRADE: F

26. HOUSTON TEXANS: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Illinois. Not sure if you know this, but Mercilus has 9 and a half fingers. His left index finger is missing the tip. Didn’t hurt him at Illinois you say? Well, Illinois sucked. As a result, he never was offered high-fives. In Houston, on Whitney’s first sack, Brian Cushing will go “up high buddy!” offering a high-five and Mercilus will give it to him. But Brian Cushing is too smart. “Dude, what the hell? That was just 4 and a half. What, are you too good to give me a high-five? What, are you some kind of rookie punk who is too good for high-fives?” Ensue the fistfight, which if you’ve ever seen Brian Cushing, doesn’t end well. Have some foresight, Texans you know better than that. GRADE: F

27. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OG Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin. The Badgers produce offensive lineman like steroids. What’s their secret? Probably steroids. With the NFL’s drug testing, Zeitler will need to stop. Once he drops to 200 pounds and begins to act much nicer, we’ll know. GRADE: F

28. GREEN BAY PACKERS: DE Nick Perry, USC. Yea, this is finally the pass rusher that Green Bay needs opposite of Clay Matthews. Sure, it will help them sack the opposing quarterback. But the Green Bay offense is still pathetic. Aaron Rodgers had a 31.7 incompletion percentage (almost 1/3 of the time!) and a putrid 45 touchdowns last season. This isn’t community college anymore, Aaron. Also, the Packers lost their most recent game – they’re heading into a downward spiral. Should have drafted a new QB. Back to the drawing board, Packers. GRADE: F

29. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame. Wow, is this team being run by REAL Vikings? If you saw the Matt Kalil pick review, you’re like “Why is he using that joke again?” If not, soak it in my friends. This draft pick works even more against Christian Ponder. If he hits him at practice, he gets injured; if he intercepts Ponder in practice, Ponder loses confidence; if Harrison Smith doesn’t do either he gets depressed and ends up in a road-side ditch. Don’t end up in a road-side ditch. GRADE: F

30. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: WR A.J. Jenkins, Illinois. This is a no-win scenario. Before, the 49ers had the “lack of weapons” excuse for the play of Alex Smith. Now what are they trying to do, expose him for what he is? If Alex Smith is smart, he’ll detect this trap and ask for a trade. But the 49ers just signed Alex Smith, so instead they’ll trade away Moss, Crabtree, Manningham, and Jenkins. Now they’re back to square one with no receivers and sucky Alex Smith. This was the exact reason people were surprised when the 49ers took Jenkins. If they all saw it coming how could the 49ers not? GRADE: F

31. TAMPA BAY BUCS: RB Doug Martin, Boise State. Sure, taking “muscle hamster” seems like a great idea at first. Not only is he muscley, but he is a hamster – both adorable and small enough to crawl under defenders. But you don’t know muscle hamsters like I do. At first they seem cute, but the hamsteroids begin to ruin their lives. They forget to run on the exercise wheel, stop calling their hamster friends, and start biting off pieces of your flesh instead of giving you harmless kisses on the cheek. GRADE: F

32. NEW YORK GIANTS: RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech. For starters, what is a team of Giants doing drafting a 5’9 206 pound running back? That’s like a team of football adults selecting an infant. Infants can’t play football stupid! Also, I saw a video of David Wilson getting emotional while giving a locker-room speech to his team-USA teammates. A) It was just against Canada, what are they gonna do use hockey sticks? And B) what are you, some kind of sissy crybaby? You gonna cry Wilson? Huge red flag. GRADE: F

With all of the self-inflicted wounds on day 1, the winners HAVE to be Baltimore, Atlanta, Denver, Oakland, and New Orleans who all made no selections. For some reason though, I have a hunch they’ll find a way to blow it when they start actually drafting.

In all seriousness though, it’s ridiculous that any fan is flipping out (or celebrating) after 1 round of drafting players that haven’t even played an NFL game. Hopefully this can help you convince your drunk uncle how crazy it is to win or lose day 1 of the NFL Draft.

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III – QB – Baylor

3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil – OT- USC

6. St. Louis Rams: Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma St.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill – QB – Texas A&M

9. Carolina Panthers: Stephon Gilmore – CB – South Carolina

10. Buffalo Bills: Luke Kuechly – LB – Boston College

11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro – G – Stanford

12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram – DE – South Carolina

13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff – OT – Iowa

14. Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron – S – Alabama

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Brockers – DT – LSU

16. New York Jets: Michael Floyd Keep Reading...]]> 1. Indianapolis Colts:  Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III – QB – Baylor

3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil – OT- USC

6. St. Louis Rams: Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma St.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill – QB – Texas A&M

9. Carolina Panthers: Stephon Gilmore – CB – South Carolina

10. Buffalo Bills: Luke Kuechly – LB – Boston College

11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro – G – Stanford

12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram – DE – South Carolina

13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff – OT – Iowa

14. Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron – S – Alabama

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Brockers – DT – LSU

16. New York Jets: Michael Floyd – WR – Notre Dame

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick – CB – Alabama

18. San Diego Chargers: Dont’a Hightower – LB – Alabama

19. Chicago Bears: Cordy Glenn – G – Georgia

20. Tennessee Titans: Quinton Coples – DE – North Carolina

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Chandler Jones – DE – Syracuse

22. Cleveland Browns: Rueben Randle – WR – LSU

23. Detroit Lions: Brandon Boykin – CB – Georgia

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Coby Fleener – TE – Stanford

25. Denver Broncos: Doug Martin – RB – Boise State

26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill – WR – Georgia Tech

27. New England Patriots: Shea McClellin – OLB – Boise State

28. Green Bay Packers: Devon Still – DE – Penn State

29. Baltimore Ravens: Alshon Jeffery – WR – South Carolina

30. San Francisco 49ers: Kevin Zeitler – G – Wisconsin

31. New England Patriots: Janoris Jenkins – CB – North Alabama

32. New York Giants: Jonathan Martin – OT – Stanford

I’m going to do something crazy, so brace yourself: Keep Reading...]]> There’s something that I need to get off my chest, and it is the notion of BPA – best player available. It’s becoming a bit of a catch phrase in the discussion of the NFL Draft and seen as rationale for justifying selections which should really go beyond just 3 simple letters. After-all it’s the best player available, how can there be an argument against it? Any other player you’re selecting would be the not-best player available, and clearly you don’t want to build an organization aiming for 2nd or 3rd best. But if taking BPA is the “best” way to build a team, why are there even people in the war room? Just put a checkmark by the box that lets you autopick based on who the highest person available on your board and go hit some golf balls, right?

I’m going to do something crazy, so brace yourself: I’m going to argue against drafting BPA and call for the shunning of all people who use the term to defend the drafting of somebody. To me, the rationalization of a draft pick as BPA can be used synonymously with the phrase “I don’t feel like going into further detail.”

Best “Prospect” Available

First and foremost, “best player available” is just untrue. For 2009, Mike Mayock had Eugene Monroe at 1, Michael Crabtree at 2, Robert Ayers at 3, and Knowshon Moreno at 4. Matt Stafford was behind Mark Sanchez, LeSean McCoy was behind Donald Brown, and his 5th ranked receiver was Brian Robiskie with the comment “best route-runner, great value.” And that’s not to pick on Mayock, as he is one of the best in the business, but projections are often so off from reality that it’s surprising that anyone actually claims to be an expert. If the 5 best players to come out of the 2012 NFL Draft end up being Andrew Luck, Trent Richardson, David DeCastro, Matt Kalil, and Morris Claiborne (the top 5 of yours truly) I’ll consider myself more lucky than good. Unless you’re Nostradamus you just don’t know how players will develop, how they’ll handle the spotlight, and how they’ll cope with successes and failures. The correct meaning of BPA should be “best prospect available” because that’s what they are – prospects.

Whose Board Is It Anyways?

One of the reasons that I’m not eager to make a big board is that I don’t know which team I’m making it for.  Teams will value different traits in players based on the scheme they run. West coast offense, zone blocking, 3-4, 4-3, Tampa-2, wide 9, the list goes on – each team that runs these can have a completely different definition of prototype.

Also important, who is on the team? If you have Tom Brady, is Andrew Luck your best player available? If you have a solid pair on the outside but lack a true slot cornerback, do you have the slot higher on your board?

Adding even more confusion to this whole mess, what kind of scenario is your team currently in? Do they have the luxury to take a gamble on the high upside of a Stephen Hill or do they need immediate production right now? Does your locker room have leaders that can provide guidance to a Janoris Jenkins or will he fall into the same bad habits that troubled him in college? Far too many elements come into play for boards to be uniform between every team so it begs the question, whose board is it anyways?

Falling Dominoes

It’s important to look at the landscape of the entire draft (or even the one after) when making a selection. As I was taught ages ago when first starting to drive, grasp the big picture of the street – don’t just constantly calibrate yourself between the dotted lines. If the top 5 prospects left on your board are running backs with little fall-off between them, why take the first one? There is a chance that you can select a completely different position (or trade down) and still get one of those 5 running backs. Have your cake and eat it too.

I also write articles for fantasy football with ProFootballFocus.com and one of the biggest blunders that I see far too often is the selecting of a quarterback early. In a 10 man league, I can name you 10 quarterbacks right now that I would be more than happy to have as my starter. Even though having Drew Brees or Tom Brady is friggin’ sweet, if you don’t have a great QB you can pick up a starter off of the waiver wire more times than not – same can’t exactly be said about running backs and receivers. With quarterbacks, your handcuff IS the waiver wire.

The idea is to get the best playerS (emphasis on the “S”) available. Thus, understand how the dominoes are going to fall. Imagine that your two biggest needs are OT and CB. This draft has a pretty large drop-off after Matt Kalil and Riley Reiff whereas at cornerback though Morris Claiborne is said by many to be the top one in the draft, Janoris Jenkins, Dre Kirkpatrick and Stephon Gilmore are good consolation prizes. I wouldn’t bat an eyelash if a team found the pairing of Reiff/Gilmore to be better than Claiborne/Mike Adams.

As I mentioned before, knowing the strength of future drafts is important as well. A month ago, I wrote this article comparing the 2012 NFL Draft to what we could see in the 2013 Draft.  I recommend either reading it or making your own list. Teams aren’t built in just one draft, a long term approach is imperative.

Supply and Demand

Also important is to understand the supply of a position and the demand of them on the open market. This past offseason, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch are the only running backs to receive what I would call large contracts (6 million plus). Meanwhile, as Ray Rice and Matt Forte are en route to potentially nasty holdouts, Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Laurent Robinson all reeled in contracts worth at or more than 6 million annually. Even guys whom most would call good running backs such as Mike Tolbert, Peyton Hillis, Michael Bush, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis had to settle for contracts worth less than 4 million per year. Though it’s a hard argument to drive that running backs are easier to find or less valued than wide receivers, the free agent market certainly seems to be dictating that’s the case. Right now, the top free agent wide receivers are two guys that nobody seems to want: Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. At running back, Cedric Benson, Justin Forsett, and Tim Hightower (just to name a few) are still looking for work. Supply and demand, supply and demand. If supply is high, you’re a fool to pay a high price for it. If you disagree, I have a nice bag of sand that I would like to sell to you.

Need Based Drafting? You’re Crazy Mike!

For some reason, need based drafting is accompanied by stank faces and condescending looks – and I’m not sure why. Even though SportsCenter would have you believe that games are decided by the superstars, watching the same instant replay can show you that it was just as much (if not more-so) decided by the worst player on the field. The chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Like a phalanx, a single weak spot and the unit is compromised. There are certain transcending players who could make the BPA argument hold up – but to that I say that such a gamechanging player would be “needed” by any team. Check. And. Mate.

Next week, I’ll go into detail on why having an offensive line is unnecessary. Stay tuned!

The most popular choice for Cleveland right now is Alabama running back Trent Richardson.

Why wouldn’t he be?

Peyton Hillis left in free agency for Kansas City, Montario Hardesty can’t stay healthy, and former Packer Brandon Jackson hasn’t played in over a year with a turf toe injury. The Browns have a history of great running backs with Keep Reading...]]> Common sense tells us that the NFL Draft begins with the Cleveland Browns and the 4th overall pick. Quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will go one/two and unless the Minnesota Vikings want Christian Ponder to die, left tackle Matt Kalil will go 3rd. Ironically, Cleveland was sitting in a similar scenario last Spring’s draft – with the top 5 expected to be Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green, and Patrick Peterson and the Browns being the wildcard at 6. Once again, all eyes are on Holmgren and company.

The most popular choice for Cleveland right now is Alabama running back Trent Richardson.

Why wouldn’t he be?

Peyton Hillis left in free agency for Kansas City, Montario Hardesty can’t stay healthy, and former Packer Brandon Jackson hasn’t played in over a year with a turf toe injury. The Browns have a history of great running backs with the likes of Jim Brown, Marion Motley, and Leroy Kelly donning orange and brown ages ago in what feels like just yesterday to Cleveland fans who have blacked out the last couple of decades. Just the idea of a running back is attractive to the blue collar people of Cleveland, Ohio. Heck, 3 yards and a cloud of dust lived 140 miles south on I-71 at Ohio State. The Midwest loves its power running game and it has treated them well historically.

And we haven’t even begun talking about Trent Richardson. He is arguably the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson, some would say even better. Low center of gravity, natural change of direction, ability to stop and go, churns through contact, holds the ball high and tight – pick a running back cliché from a hat and it likely fits Richardson. On top of that, he’s an every down back with ability to catch out of the backfield and a willingness to pass protect that not many NFL feature backs possess.

Turn in the card, right?

Well, not exactly.

For starters, he plays running back. Y’know, the position that gets smashed near every time he has the ball. One bad hit and there goes nearly 20 million fully guaranteed dollars to the sideline for who knows how long. Here’s an interesting list for you to look over:

Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Peyton Hillis, Ahmad Bradshaw, Tim Hightower, Jahvid Best, DeMarco Murray, Mark Ingram (Richardson’s former running mate at Alabama), Mikel LeShoure, Ryan Williams, Alex Greene.

No, that’s not a list of the best running backs in the NFL – it’s a list of notable running backs whose 2011 seasons were hindered (and in some cases completely derailed) by injuries.

As a matter of fact, the final 5 guys on that list were all rookies. Adding up the total snaps and carries for every running back taken in the first 3 rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft (the aforementioned 5 plus Stevan Ridley, Daniel Thomas, and Shane Vereen) gets you 1199 snaps, 555 carries – or about 150 snaps, 69 carries each. The NFL is a completely different animal from college football in terms of speed/power and many of these young players’ bodies are not used to it.  And this year wasn’t a rarity having so many new backs get injured – just ask Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty how their rookie seasons went.

If Trent Richardson gets injured, I won’t say “tough luck” – I’ll say “business as usual.” Similar to breaking the strings on a tennis racquet, with the beating that the RB position takes, it is about when the injury happens, not if. Richardson had his knee scoped recently, how long until he needs his next oil change?

Speaking of a beating, Cleveland plays in the AFC North. That’s the same division as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Baltimore Ravens – the 2nd, 8th, and 10th ranked run defenses in the NFL. They hit, and they hit hard. Is targeting the strength of interdivisional rivals the way to go? Since 2003, Cleveland has had one QB pass for over 3,000 yards. That year also happens to be the only time in that stretch Cleveland has won more than 6 games. Whether it’s correlation or causation is up for interpretation but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.

Fact is, when Anthony Davis is swatting everything that comes in his direction, do you force the ball into the paint or do you try and attack the defense on the perimeter?

The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals defenses are clearly throwing down “rock” in RoShamBo, and the Cleveland Browns know it. Even though Trent Richardson is one shiny looking rock, shouldn’t Cleveland try throwing down “paper” for once? Why not change the game rather than conforming by the rules of the AFC North?

Lastly, let’s take a look at the landscape in Cleveland. Are they built to be a power running team? As one of the smartest guys in the business Greg Cosell says, the running back can make the OL. If that’s the case and Trent Richardson lands with the Browns, he has quite a bit of work to do. The Pro Football Focus run blocking ratings for the projected starters are not very encouraging. The left side of the line is occupied by Joe Thomas (-6.2 run block rating) and Jason Pinkston (-14.6 run block rating). Owen Marecic had a disappointing rookie season according to most Clevelanders, partly because of their affinity for the departed Lawrence Vickers and party because they expected better from a 4th round pick fullback. And then the tight end quartet of Ben Watson, Alex Smith, Jordan Cameron, and Evan Moore (if you call him a TE) doesn’t inspire much confidence either, as they all graded negatively at run blocking. And this all goes without mentioning that the right tackle spot is vacant at the moment. Unless the plan is to run directly behind center Alex Mack, this is a team that just isn’t currently built to be pigs.

In fact, someone who argues that the Alabama offensive line (which also allowed Crimson Tide backup running back Eddie Lacey to average 7.1 yards per carry) can pave a better path than Cleveland wouldn’t be quite as crazy as you think – as long as it’s behind future early draft picks Barrett Jones, D.J. Fluker, and Chance Warmack.

There are a few other generalities that I can shape as reasons why Cleveland shouldn’t take Trent Richardson:

“Today’s NFL is a passing league, a running back can’t keep up with the scoring of quarterbacks”

“A running back doesn’t need to be taken in the top 5, or even the 1^st round in order to be productive”

“You don’t need an elite RB to win the Super Bowl”

But those aren’t full-proof theories and I would be naïve to preach them as such.

If Cleveland drafts Trent Richardson, several things will happen:

1. Richardson will smile, possibly cry
2. He’ll hug/kiss everyone at his table
3. Walk onto the stage and shake hands with Roger Goodell
4. Hold up a Browns jersey
5. Draftniks will say “I told you so”
6. Tons of Cleveland Browns fans will buy his jersey and cheer for him unconditionally

Then, reality will hit: Cleveland has drafted a power running back to run behind a weak offensive line against the strong run defenses of the AFC North.

Cleveland fans operate mostly out of fear and loathing for themselves. The franchise passed on LaDanian Tomlinson in 2001 then Adrian Peterson in 2007 and many fans have been kicking themselves ever since. For that same reason (fear) many loyal fans are afraid of taking a quarterback because they don’t want to be burned again by a Tim Couch or Brady Quinn. Many Clevelanders feel that the franchise can’t afford to not take Trent Richardson so that as least they have something to flaunt to other teams. As a result, they’ll ignore the harsh reality of the situation and the massive amount of risk involved for a team that doesn’t have the luxury to take that risk.

It’s worth stating, Trent Richardson won’t be a wasted pick by any means. But it’s not going to be all sunshine and daisies in Cleveland.  He will be the focus of defenses with the ability to stop him. The LSU defense is not even close to the worst defense in the NFL.

For Cleveland to begin winning, they’ll need to solve the QB position, they’ll need to upgrade the WR corps, and they’ll need to fix the holes on a leaky defense. All of this begs the question – can the Cleveland Browns afford to spend the pick on a running back if a team comes knocking for the 4th overall pick?

Cleveland, you’re on the clock. Still ready to turn in the card with Trent Richardson’s name on it?

Every fan wants to fix their team in one offseason. As nice as that would be, it’s just not realistic. Two teams that have consistently won over the past decade are the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles – and it’s no coincidence that they both are known to maneuver quite a bit on draft day to acquire Keep Reading...]]> When looking at any draft, it is important to grasp the big picture. Not only should the positional depth of the current draft be looked at, but that of the next year’s draft as well. If there are 5 players of equal talent available at a position, why choose one when you can trade down, pick up additional draft choices, and end up with a player whom you would have taken at the earlier draft slot? Or, worst case scenario – pull a Minnesota and don’t turn in your card.

Every fan wants to fix their team in one offseason. As nice as that would be, it’s just not realistic. Two teams that have consistently won over the past decade are the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles – and it’s no coincidence that they both are known to maneuver quite a bit on draft day to acquire future picks. That long term approach increases the odds that they win the crapshoot that is the NFL Draft. Most importantly, it takes into account positional strengths of current drafts and compares them to that of the following draft. Big picture, folks!

Which leads me to the point of this article – how does the talent of the 2012 NFL Draft line up to that of which we COULD see in 2013? I’m glad you asked.

Here are the combined top prospects at each position. I’m not a big fan of numerically ranking players because so much depends on team scheme and whether you prefer taking a chance at upside or going with a safe choice. As a result, I’ve broken it up into tiers. Tiers of joy.

(2012 NFL Draft prospects are identified with an asterisk)

Quarterback

Tier 1

*Andrew Luck, Stanford

Tier 2

*Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Matt Barkley, USC

Tier 3

Tyler Bray, Tennessee

*Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Tyler Wilson, Arkansas

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech

Geno Smith, West Virginia

*Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State

Tier 4

Keith Price, Washington

*Brock Osweiler, Arizona State

E.J. Manuel, Florida State

Translation: 2012 was supposed to be the year of the quarterback, but with Matt Barkley returning it’s shaping up so that 2013 is that year. Granted, there will be no Andrew Luck next season, there are quite a few players who could shoot up boards with impressive final years. In other words, if you can’t get Andrew Luck or RG3, there’s no need to panic and reach for the next best quarterback.

Running Back

Tier 1

*Trent Richardson, Alabama

Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

Michael Dyer, Auburn

Tier 2

Giovani Bernard, North Carolina

*David Wilson, Virginia Tech

*Lamar Miller, Miami

*Doug Martin, Boise State

Knile Davis, Arkansas

Tier 3

Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State

Montee Ball, Wisconsin

Ray Graham, Pittsburgh

*Robert Turbin, Utah State

*Chris Polk, Washington

Zach Stacy, Vanderbilt

Translation: 2013 could end up as one of the best running back groups ever – which makes Montee Ball returning all the more confusing. After Tier 2, you may just be better off waiting for next year or picking up a rental. If there were a Tier 4, it would be comprised of several more prospects not in the 2012 draft, with so many of them just seething with potential but not thick enough resumes to include in this list.

Wide Receiver

Tier 1

Robert Woods, USC

*Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State

Keenan Allen, California

Marquess Wilson, Washington State

Tier 2

*Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

*Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina

Justin Hunter, Tennessee

Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee

*Kendall Wright, Baylor

Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas

Kenny Stills, Oklahoma

Translation: Are you sure that you want to take Justin Blackmon top 5? The college level is completely loaded at the WR position, don’t feel the need to reach for one in 2012.

Tight End

Tier 1

*Dwayne Allen, Clemson

Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame

*Coby Fleener, Stanford

*Orson Charles, Georgia

Joseph Fauria, UCLA

Philip Lutzenkurchen, Auburn

Tier 2

*Michael Egnew, Missouri

Jordan Reed, Florida

Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State

Chris Gragg, Arkansas

*Ladarius Green, ULL

Translation: 2012 has an edge in the Joker TE/WR department, but severely lacks at the in-line blocking category. Rather than taking on a project of trying to mold a Joker into a blocker, you may just be better off waiting for one of the guys in 2013.

Offensive Tackle

Tier 1

*Matt Kalil, USC

Tier 2

*Riley Reiff, Iowa

*Jonathan Martin, Stanford

Barrett Jones, Alabama

Seantrel Henderson, Miami

Jake Matthews, Texas A&M

D.J. Fluker, Alabama

Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M

Chris Faulk, LSU

Chaz Green, Florida

Translation: After the big 3 (Kalil, Reiff, and Martin) there is no need to reach for a tackle if that is what your team needs. I’m looking at you, NFL team considering drafting Mike Adams in the top 20.

Interior Offensive Linemen

Tier 1

*David DeCastro, Stanford

Chance Warmack, Alabama

Tier 2

*Peter Konz, Wisconsin

*Cordy Glenn, Georgia

Andrew Norwell, Ohio State

James Hurst, UNC

Omoregie Uzzi, Georgia Tech

*Brandon Washington, Miami

Translation: This year and the next are going to be two of the best guard classes ever. If you miss out on stud David DeCastro, there are plenty of consolation prizes to go around.

4-3 Defensive End

Tier X

Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

Barkevious Mingo, LSU

*Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

Corey Lemonier, Auburn

*Whitney Mercilus, Illinois

Sam Montgomery, LSU

Kareem Martin, UNC

*Nick Perry, USC

Tier X.5

Alex Okafor, Texas

Dion Jordan, Oregon

Brandon Jenkins, FSU

*Chandler Jones, Syracuse

Translation: Yuck. The 2012 class is so full of question marks that they don’t even get to be considered tier 1. On the other hand, the college pool is very talented but lacks the production to justify being called tier 1 either. Thus, tier X and X.5 it is. Still, pass rushers tend to break out in their final years in school, so keep an eye on these guys still in school. If I had to choose, I’d take my chances on a DE from the 2013 class outshining those of the 2012 class once they are draft eligible.

3-4 Defensive End

Tier 1

*Quinton Coples, UNC

Dominique Easley, Florida

Bjoern Werner, FSU

William Gholston, Michigan State

Tier 2

*Devon Still, PSU

*Jared Crick, Nebraska

Bennie Logan, LSU

John Simon, OSU

*Kendall Reyes, Connecticut

Margus Hunt, SMU

Translation: Both classes are solid but the monster potential of having 3 players in tier 1 gives a slight edge to 2013.

Defensive/Nose Tackle

Tier 1

Sharrif Floyd, Florida

John Hankins, OSU

*Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State

Tier 2

*Michael Brockers, LSU

*Dontari Poe, Memphis

Star Lotulelei, Utah

Kawaan Short, Purdue

Tier 3

*Brandon Thompson, Clemson

Kwame Geathers, Georgia

*Jerel Worthy, Michigan State

Translation: This year and next are super loaded at DT. There may not be a Ndamukong Suh standing out just yet, but there’s very good value here in both drafts.

3-4 Outside Linebacker

Tier 1

Jarvis Jones, Georgia

*Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

Tier 2

Sean Porter, Texas A&M

Ronald Powell, Florida

Damontre Moore, Texas A&M

Barkevious Mingo, LSU

Tier 3

Chase Thomas, Stanford

*Shea McClellin, Boise State

Trevardo Williams, Connecticut

*Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma

Nico Johnson, Alabama

Roosevelt Nix, Kent State

*Andre Branch, Clemson

*Cam Johnson, Virginia

Translation: This draft seriously needed Jarvis Jones and his pass rushing ability.

4-3 Outside Linebacker

Tier 1

*Zach Brown, UNC

*Bobby Wagner, Utah State

Jelani Jenkins, Florida

Tier 2

*Lavonte David, Nebraska

Tier 3

Arthur Brown, Kansas State

Khaseem Green, Rutgers

Dion Bailey, USC

*Terrell Manning, North Carolina State

*Sean Spence, Miami

*Josh Kaddu, Oregon

Kenny Tate, Maryland

Translation: Teams that need a 4-3 weakside linebacker are in luck.

Inside Linebacker

Tier 1

*Luke Kuechly, Boston College

Manti Te’o, Notre Dame

Shayne Skov, Stanford

Tier 2

*Dont’a Hightower, Alabama

Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky

Tom Wort, Oklahoma

C.J. Mosley, Alabama

Kevin Reddick, UNC

Tier 3

Bruce Taylor, Virginia Tech

Dede Lattimore, USF

Translation: There is a pretty large drop-off at middle linebacker after Kuechly and Hightower. If you miss out on them, your best bet is to wait.

Cornerback

Tier 1

*Morris Claiborne, LSU

David Amerson, North Carolina State

Tier 2

*Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

*Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama

Xavier Rhodes, FSU

Tier 3

*Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

*Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech

Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State

Bud Noel, Wake Forest

Ahmad Dixon, Baylor

*Brandon Boykin, Georgia

Tier 4

*Chase Minnifield, Virginia

Greg Reid, FSU

*Leonard Johnson, Iowa State

Dee Milliner, Alabama

Tharold Simon, LSU

*Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska

*Josh Robinson, UCF

Translation: He may be really good, but looking at the big picture taking Morris Claiborne in the top 5 may not be the most thrify move to make.

Safety

Tier 1

Tyrann Mathieu, LSU

Lamarcus Joyner, FSU

Eric Reid, LSU

Tier 2

*Mark Barron, Alabama

Matt Elam, Florida

T.J. McDonald, USC

Bacarri Rambo, Georgia

Robert Lester, Alabama

Ray-Ray Armstrong, Miami

Tier 3

*Harrison Smith, Notre Dame

Prentiss Wagner, Tennessee

Kenny Vaccaro, Texas

Translation: Don’t even think about reaching for a Safety this year. Personally, I’m not sure I would take one at all in 2012 as 2013 could be the first strong Safety class in years.

Height: 6056 Weight: 281

Best fit: 3-4 DE

Potential landing spot: Dallas Cowboys (14th overall)

Breakdown:

It feels a bit weird mentioning Quinton Coples in an article about edge rushers when that’s not how he’ll be earning his money at the next level. Still, since many consider him into this conversation, it only makes sense to take a closer look at the Tar Heel.

If this were a list about the top edge re-establishers, Coples would be much more at home. He was out of position when lining up at the blindside his senior year at Chapel Hill and is just not a real sack terror – and that’s perfectly fine. His hips just aren’t made to get around the corner and at his size, it’s not a simple task getting small to slip under or around left tackles. If he couldn’t do Keep Reading...]]> Quinton Coples, North Carolina

Height: 6056 Weight: 281

Best fit: 3-4 DE

Potential landing spot: Dallas Cowboys (14^th overall)

Breakdown:

It feels a bit weird mentioning Quinton Coples in an article about edge rushers when that’s not how he’ll be earning his money at the next level. Still, since many consider him into this conversation, it only makes sense to take a closer look at the Tar Heel.

If this were a list about the top edge re-establishers, Coples would be much more at home. He was out of position when lining up at the blindside his senior year at Chapel Hill and is just not a real sack terror – and that’s perfectly fine. His hips just aren’t made to get around the corner and at his size, it’s not a simple task getting small to slip under or around left tackles. If he couldn’t do it in the ACC, it seems unreasonable to think he can do it against NFL blockers.

The player who comes to mind when looking at Coples is Calais Campbell while at Miami. Campbell was a highly rated player entering his final year at Da U but failed to reach expectations and frankly, was also out of position. Fast-forward to the present and Campbell has been a force playing the 3-4 defensive end and is due for a very large pay-day in the near future. Between 7 and 9 sacks (like Campbell) is what one should expect from Coples, but he’ll offer additional utility by batting passes and disrupting the edge – if he’s motivated. A mean Quinton Coples like people saw at the Senior Bowl practices is hard to defend. When he has the mentality of going out there and killing people (his words) he can play like a top 10 pick, but his consistency is the only issue holding him back from that.

Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

Height: 6014 Weight: 273

Best fit: 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB

Potential landing spot: Buffalo Bills (10^th overall)

Breakdown:

Courtney Upshaw is a name that many are familiar with by now. When rushing, he extends his hands well, dips his shoulder, and has the ability to get small around the corner. One of the first things that you’ll notice is his motor and mean streak. In fact, on many occasions in Mobile he and the South offensive tackles continued to go at it after the whistle. My favorite trait about Upshaw is his initial punch. Even though he has relatively short arms for an ideal edge rusher, he’ll often use them to set the edge and win the battle early.

Still, Upshaw may never be an elite sack artist it would be nice to see him stick his hands in passing lanes a bit more often. But unreasonable as it seems to expect routine double digit sack seasons, it also seems unreasonable to drop a players stock for that when they’re so good at almost every other facet. Courtney Upshaw steps up in the big games and it’s almost a sure-thing that he’ll be in the NFL for 10+ years.

Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

Height: 6017 Weight: 276

Best fit: All over the place

Potential landing spot: New York Jets (16^th overall)

Breakdown:

Melvin Ingram is probably one of the biggest anomalies that I’ve come across this draft season. Frankly, I feel he is overrated. Much of his production came surrounded by massive talent while floating around taking advantage of overmatched offensive linemen (mainly guards). In the Georgia game, he was held in check by left tackle Cordy Glenn and even tight end Orson Charles. In the Nebraska game, he was unable to get around Jermarcus Hardrick – a senior left tackle who you probably just heard of. But the big plays (sacks, fake punt touchdowns, interceptions, onside kick recoveries) give off the misleading box score illusion that Ingram is a stud.

Don’t get me wrong, I do like Ingram. Simply put, he’s a gamer and his instincts are better than any edge rushing candidate in this draft. His ability to sniff out the screen or bootleg is linebacker-esque. Still, I see him as a 2^nd round pick who will go earlier due to the importance of getting to the quarterback. His ability to be a productive rusher at times will be entirely dependent on his first move – and if that doesn’t work then he’s done for. The fact that he’s a jack-of-all-trades and master-of-none can be seen as both a positive and a negative. If a team drafts Melvin Ingram thinking that he’s going to stay at right defensive end, get 10+ sacks, and make multiple Pro Bowls then they’re doing it wrong. But in a league where matchups can make all the difference, it’s a torturous thought wondering just what the outcome will be. My gut tells me that the reason he’s ranked so highly by many is more about what they want him to be and not quite what he is.

Nick Perry, Southern California

Height (listed): 6030 Weight: 250

Best fit: 4-3 RDE

Potential landing spot: Cleveland Browns (22^nd overall)

Breakdown:

Nick Perry was not exceeding productive for most of his career at USC but began to show signs of his overall talent this past year. He is athletic, has good hips, and a solid motor. He on several occasions flashed the ability to get to the QB but does not always capitalize. His repertoire consists of mainly a straight bull-rush or just trying to beat his blocker around the corner. There wasn’t much creativity and often as soon as the ball is snapped, you know which is coming. His hand placement can use work and I would like to see more violence in them.

Injuries hobbled the growth of Perry for much of his career at South California but the skills are clearly there. In most drafts he would likely be a 2^nd round pick but due to the relative weakness at the position and priority on getting to the QB, Perry could be off the board in the 1^st round with good offseason workouts.

Whitney Mercilus, Illinois

Height (listed): 6040 Weight: 265

Best fit: 4-3 RDE

Potential landing spot: Jacksonville Jaguars (39^th overall)

Breakdown:

Whitney Mercilus came out of relative obscurity to be the most productive defensive end in college football. As a result, I was very motivated to do more film study on the Akron, Ohio native. What I found was a bit mixed.

His technique (like pretty much every college player) can use work, as he operates a bit too upright for the NFL. As a result, he is knocked off balance by blockers rather easily, especially when contacted from the sides. He has a natural stance but can sometimes be vulnerable to getting sealed off if he doesn’t explode out of it. His instincts are a bit of a work in progress and he can have difficulty reading the flow of a play and could sometimes bite too hard on playfakes. When double teamed, Mercilus has a high amount of difficulty doing anything and can also struggle to disengage in just one on ones – especially when he lets them in on his pads (which, as a result of being upright, are much easier to grab at).

To me, Mercilus is a middle 2^nd round pick. His being a bit of a one-year wonder is worrisome but the thing to like most about him is that when he does get to the quarterback, he goes for the strip. That’s something which not many college players will do but Mercilus does with relative ease. I’ll be very interested in how he looks in workouts.

Vinny Curry, Marshall

Height: 6030 Weight: 265

Best fit: 4-3 RDE

Potential landing spot: Indianapolis Colts (65^th overall)

Breakdown:

One of the first things that I noticed about Curry is that he’s not really explosive. His get-off of the line is rather average. The hand placement/technique is sound and when Curry does get around offensive tackles, he does a great job of shielding them with his body – much like a wide receiver does when they get a step on a cornerback. His pursuit, closing speed, and change of direction are limited by his lack of elite athleticism.

After meeting Curry, he’s very humble and comes off as coachable – which would explain why his technique is rather refined for someone his age. The phrase that I would use to describe Curry is efficient. His chances of flat-out busting seem slim but his chances are superstardom are equally slim. I actually think that with an extra 15 pounds Curry may be better off as a 3-technique defensive tackle but that’s probably crazy-talk.

Cam Johnson, Virginia

Height: 6036 Weight: 267

Best fit: 3-4 OLB

Potential landing spot: Green Bay Packers (91^th overall)

Breakdown:

I had not really taken an interest in Cam Johnson until the Senior Bowl, when Senio Kelemete said that he was the best player he matched up against. He pointed to his first step and that’s the first thing that you notice about Johnson. He gets off the line in a hurry and is explosive off of the edge. His stop and go ability lends itself nicely to the 3-4 defense, which Virginia actually played last season before switching to a 4-3.

Still, there are several things with Johnson that will keep him from coming off the board early – aside from injury (or who knows, maybe some of these things are due to injury). He can get pushed around a bit, especially after letting linemen in on his pads which he can sometimes do. He doesn’t fight through blocks so well either and needs to work on lower body strength. His initial punch wasn’t showcased much so it’s tough to tell if it’s just not there or not utilized. Dropping in coverage, he could sometimes lock in on one man and lose peripheral vision. A mean streak is also something that I would like to see more of from Johnson. To me he is a 3^rd/4^th rounder but it’s so hard to judge a player through injury that it’s hard to be certain of what you’re looking at. Also, a sickle-cell condition will keep Johnson from being an every down type of player – or even an any-down type of player somewhere like Denver.

Chandler Jones, Syracuse

Height (listed): 6050 Weight: 265

Best fit: 4-3 DE

Potential landing spot: New England Patriots (63^rd overall)

Breakdown:

Chandler Jones has been an interest of mine ever since finding out that his brothers are UFC fight Jon “Bones” Jones and Ravens DT Arthur Jones. Though hamstrung by injury for much of his stay at Syracuse, you can see that the natural talent is there.

Jones is raw to say the least though. When he runs, he swings around his arms – almost to the point where it is wasted energy. At times, he can even give away an impending bull-rush by tilting his head back before making contact with the linemen. This can’t be too smart but is likely correctable. His lower body needs to add strength but he can use his long arms to both get into passing lanes and keep blockers from getting a handful of jersey. Questions about his mean streak do creep into my head and he’s much more of a wrap-up tackler than he is the normal take the ball-carrier’s head off type. While it’s tough to see just his production making him a 2^nd round pick, his potential could allow him to creep in. When all is said and done, Jones could become the steal of the draft with his Aldon Smith-like skillset, but there’s just not enough evidence to be sure at this point.

Andre Branch, Clemson

Height (listed): 6050 Weight: 260

Best fit: 3-4 OLB or situational 4-3 DE

Potential landing spot: San Diego Chargers (49^th overall)

Breakdown:

When looking at edge rushers in this draft, Andre Branch always seems to catch my eye. He played mostly at end in the 4-3 defense but would occasionally stand up at an outside linebacker spot. In the occasional drop back in coverage, he is a bit clunky and needs work in that department. Still, when rushing he does a nice job at 6’5 of dipping his shoulder under tackles and getting around the corner. He does have some inconsistence tendencies out of his stance, as the explosion isn’t always there and can sometimes studder-step rather than just getting upfield. Working on extending his hands to keep space between he and blockers will also be something to work on too.

Andre Branch carries himself with a swagger, has a mean streak, and clearly likes to hit – afterall, not many of the guys on this list will try to lack out a 300 pound offensive linemen downfield behind the play. Middle 2^nd round sounds about right for him.

Bruce Irvin, West Virginia

Height (listed): 6’3 Weight: 245

Best fit: Situation pass rusher

Potential landing spot: Chicago Bears (80^th overall)

Breakdown:

Bruuuuuuuce Irvin is probably one of the most exciting/aggravating pass rushers in this class to watch. He was drastically out of position playing the 5-technique in the West Virginia 3-3-5 but on pass rushing downs always seemed to be a menace. He has the athleticism to embarrass offensive tackles at times, with a fake bull-rush inside move being one of his favorites. Still, he’s somewhat of a one-trick pony. When he’s in the game on non-pass rushing downs, he can sometimes be manhandled and could honestly be a liability on red-zone defense. He’s also not much of a tackler but has the athleticism to stop and go to hope his teammates can clean up for him.

Irvin in the NFL might end up being someone completely different from his last season at West Virginia, which didn’t even earn him a Senior Bowl invite. With the right coaching, I would keep an eye on this Mountaineer and look for him to come off the board in the 3^rd round. Even a situational pass rusher can have a huge impact.

Senior Bowl Diary: Day 2

Senior Bowl Diary: Day 3

Today at the Senior Bowl can be described with 3 blurry pictures:

After a tornado warning and torrential downpour, practices went inside and essentially boiled down to walkthroughs. In other words, very little scouting.

Fortunately, I got onto the escalator at the same time as a man who as it turns out is the agent for the hot ticket of the week, Joe Adams. We struck up some good conversation and he altered my perspective on the “greed” of the sports agent industry. While he may be an expert at buttering people up as part of the job, he seemed to genuinely care about the well-being of Joe Adams – his one and only client this draft.

After hearing about and speaking Keep Reading...]]> Senior Bowl Diary: Day 1

Senior Bowl Diary: Day 2

Senior Bowl Diary: Day 3

Today at the Senior Bowl can be described with 3 blurry pictures:

After a tornado warning and torrential downpour, practices went inside and essentially boiled down to walkthroughs. In other words, very little scouting.

Fortunately, I got onto the escalator at the same time as a man who as it turns out is the agent for the hot ticket of the week, Joe Adams. We struck up some good conversation and he altered my perspective on the “greed” of the sports agent industry. While he may be an expert at buttering people up as part of the job, he seemed to genuinely care about the well-being of Joe Adams – his one and only client this draft.

After hearing about and speaking to Adams, it’s hard not to root for him. He is soft-spoken, likes video games (mostly NBA2K or Call of Duty), and doesn’t party. He is training in Fort Lauderdale with Chris Carter and his 40 time is reportedly 4.25 right now. After watching him this week, I don’t doubt it. When I asked him about Adams’s stock, the agent said that he came in here as a 3^rd rounder (about where I had him) and is now in the 2^nd round (where I now have him) or maybe late 1^st with a good combine.

While the agent said every team has been asking, he particularly singled out the Detroit Lions and New England Patriots as being huge fans of his. Even Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham has said to Joe Adams (sarcastically) that he would love to even have him on the team to play both ways – wideout and corner.

Brandon Weeden also came up in the conversation and Joe Adams said that he LOVES Brandon Weeden. I always like when a player compliments another player and who would know better about how good a quarterback is playing than a wideout?

Speaking of player endorsements, Senio Kelemete was one of the few players to answer honestly when asked who impressed him most out here. As opposed to the usual “well, everyone down here is good” the Samoan offensive tackle/guard said that Virginia DE Cam Johnson was very tough to defend with his explosive first step. Thanks a lot Senio, now I need to watch Cam Johnson more (who I neglected this week unfortunately).

The Senior Bowl practices were a very new and exciting experience for me. Thanks to Draft Breakdown for sending me down here!

Senior Bowl Diary: Day 2

Today at the senior bowl was quite an eventful day. Keeping with my trend of having no trend with my Senior Bowl reports, I’m going to break up my overall impressions by squads because today the experience in each was vastly different.

NORTH

Maybe it was because it is the morning practice, but the North side’s Day 3 was a bit of a snoozer. Instead of spending time showcasing player talents, the Vikings coaching squad spent a majority of the time doing walk-through.

The signal callers were consistently sloppy, with the exception of Kirk Cousins. He had a very good day, arguably the best quarterbacking performance that I have seen this week. Cousins was especially adept at finding the spaces in the zone defenses. There was nice pace on his throws and he seemed settled and Keep Reading...]]> Senior Bowl Diary: Day 1

Senior Bowl Diary: Day 2

Today at the senior bowl was quite an eventful day. Keeping with my trend of having no trend with my Senior Bowl reports, I’m going to break up my overall impressions by squads because today the experience in each was vastly different.

NORTH

Maybe it was because it is the morning practice, but the North side’s Day 3 was a bit of a snoozer. Instead of spending time showcasing player talents, the Vikings coaching squad spent a majority of the time doing walk-through.

The signal callers were consistently sloppy, with the exception of Kirk Cousins. He had a very good day, arguably the best quarterbacking performance that I have seen this week. Cousins was especially adept at finding the spaces in the zone defenses. There was nice pace on his throws and he seemed settled and confident. The Spartan is likely rising up many draft boards right now but I’m still not sure that I would spend earlier than a 3^rd rounder on him. If someone expects him to become the face of their franchise they might be sorely disappointed. Just a sidenote but a few moments ago I walked by a man conversating with Cousins and they seemed to be doing a memory test with cards. The first card was an Ace of Spades.

Making Cousins look even better was the poor play of Kellen Moore and Russell Wilson. While it didn’t help that the Centers were having snap issues (primarily the new guy Rishaw Johnson, who got extra work after team drills) they were not looking good. His windup is long, he is robotic, and his arm strength is lacking. I was very low on Moore coming in, seeing him in person I have trouble even seeing him getting drafted.

The best wide receiver on the North side was Marvin McNutt in my opinion. He did well at adjusting to the ball in the air and finding the soft spot in the zone. Unlike some of the receivers here, he’s good at playing the ball in the air. Speaking of, T.J. Graham is one of the players that doesn’t have great aerial skills. His shiftiness and route running will need to be from the slot but he’ll need to work on his press technique. A player who stood out to me was Emil Igwenagu. His height (6’1) may be a problem at TE but he looks to have versatility and either way, has nice ball skills for a man his size. He might be this year’s Charles Clay who I loved last year out of Tulsa.

One receiver who I have a very love/hate relationship with right now is DeVier Posey. His smoothness in and out of breaks is something else but dang it Posey, catch the ball! He uses his hands but doesn’t extend them like you want and seems to lose concentration – naturally causing drops and double catches. As a result of the drops, he will sometimes take the weak way out and catch it with his body. Poseyyyy!!! *shakes fist*

After practice, I spoke a bit with Brian Linthicum. He was held out of yesterday’s practice with a right shoulder injury. Admittedly, I didn’t get to watch him much but he discussed how his one off the field incident (being arrested for a fight) was the only time he has been in trouble in his life. He seemed sincere and wanted to show this week that he can block as well as be a vertical threat.

Chris Polk still failed to impress. But I had a discussion with some people over just how much a running back can even showcase one’s self in this type of a format where there isn’t even real tackling. I can’t say that I strongly disagree.

I wish that I had a ton to say about defensive players but there weren’t many chances to shine. Jamell Fleming played tough and Leonard Johnson likes to hit. After practice speaking with Johnson’s people, they told me that they weren’t letting Johnson play press coverage enough and considering that’s one of his strength, no argument here.

Other notes that I don’t feel like putting in paragraph form:

Brian Quick doesn’t use his size to his advantage and I don’t know if he likes contact.

LaVonte David is very small, if he switched numbers with Dennard, I don’t know if many would notice.

Billy Wagner was very solid and moves well in coverage for a larger LB.

SOUTH

Now for some real football discussion (JK, but seriously). The south practices are much more high paced, feature more hitting, and lets the players showcase their abilities. Their coaches are also more vocal, with the exception of Mike Shanahan – who I don’t think has even talked to a player yet.

I watched the quarterbacks sparingly, but nothing that I saw stood out much though I did hear that Ryan Lindley had his best practice of the day. The feedback about Weeden/Foles was more of the same.

The players who stole the show were the cornerbacks and the two lead dogs were Brandon Boykin and Janoris Jenkins. Each of them played phenomenally. Boykin showed that the physique isn’t all show and at one point jammed Dwight Jones at the LOS so hard that Jones nearly gave up. It was pure annihilation and did I mention that he will probably run in the 4.4 range? I would confidently say that he’s looking like a 1^st rounder and can’t wait to watch more tape on him. As for Jenkins, he played tight coverage all day and showed an elite closing ability. He also has swagger which you can’t teach.

As you would imagine when the cornerbacks looked this good, the receivers really struggled. Dwight Jones and Jeff Fuller got out-physicalled by small cornerbacks while failing to show any inch of separation.

One exception was Juron Criner. He has the best ball skills of the wideouts on the South team. Some of them get lost when the ball is in the air but Criner doesn’t. I spoke to a man who has known Criner his whole life who told me of his rebounding ability in basketball back in the day. I can’t see that. The concerns with Criner seem to be speed related and he is training with Michael Johnson ‘s people in Texas to work on it. Also speaking with Criner after practice, one can’t help but root for him.

Keenan Robinson showed some real explosive pass rushing ability in linebacker versus running back pass protection drills. He showcased a gorgeous swim move and showed nice hip flexion for a physical specimen and at 6’3 240 there is room to grow. As good as he looked in that drill, his teammate Emmanuel Acho looked just as bad. He was stonewalled by a running back in a drill where the linebacker has a clear advantage. He looked unexplosive.

Others:

Jake Bequette is playing outside linebacker and is not looking good.

Will Vlachos is arguably the worst player here.

Just as players are getting into the rhythm of things, the week is nearing a close *sniff*. Tune in for the final Senior Bowl Diary tomorrow!