Draft Breakdown » Shane Hallam

The Hulk or Bruce Banner?

Shane Hallam — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 04:50:30 +0000

By Shane Hallam 4/3/10

Growing up with two older brothers, I had a lot of exposure to comic books and superheroes. One of my favorites was always the Incredible Hulk, who was often depicted in cartoons and movies as the harmless, fearful Bruce Banner until his anger metamorphosed him into the ultimate physical machine, The Hulk.

So, what does this have to do with the draft? Well, I hate the term “boom or bust.” It makes it sounds like a guy will either be a Hall of Famer or flipping burgers at McDonalds. More often than not, a guy will either end up a Pro Bowler or become an inconsistent spot starter. Essentially, they either get to be a variation of the dynamic Hulk or timid Bruce Banner. I am going to pick out one first day pick by position and explain to you who will show up as a pro, The Hulk or Bruce Banner.

Quarterback: Tim Tebow, Florida
There isn’t a more divisive prospect than Tim Tebow, one of the greatest college football players of all-time. The common moniker is: “He just wins.” From peewee football to high school to college, Tim Tebow has always been successful, but what does it mean for the NFL? Even with plenty of additional work on the basics, no one knows if Tebow’s windup, delivery and footwork will be NFL caliber in gametme situations. Even when revising his throwing motion, Tebow seemed to lack a bit of arm strength and accuracy needed for the NFL. We have seen Quarterbacks with high intangibles and not ideal skills like Jeff Garcia, Doug Flutie, and Jake Delhomme succeed in the NFL, while others like Danny Wuerffel, Heath Shuler, David Klingler, and Rick Mirer had excellent intangibles but couldn’t make it in the NFL. It would be a big mistake to think Tebow can’t succeed. If he lands in the right situation and can develop, Tim Tebow could make it work in the NFL.

Diagnosis: The Hulk

Running Back: Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss
There may not be a player who rose their stock more at the Senior Bowl. Dexter McCluster came out and made plays in practice and the game as a jack of all trades type of player who can run the ball, catch the ball, and even run a bit of the wildcat. A likely second round pick playmaker, McCluster will be drafted based on his explosiveness and forcing opposing defenses to plan around him. Though his 40 time disappointed, McCluster came through in cone drills and showed he is more quick than fast. The biggest question is if he can take an NFL beating and if having multiple positions is better than having one firm position. There are major doubts about if McCluster can live up to a 2nd round draft pick and contribute as a starting quality player.

Diagnosis: Bruce Banner

Wide Receiver: Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
A prospect who is rising up draft boards, Demaryius Thomas came out of the spread offense in Georgia Tech and is a bit of an enigma. He has extraordinary athleticism and has the potential to be a #1 wideout in the NFL. A tough and stingy blocker as well, teams are looking at Thomas as a late first round pick who will need some developing. If you want a homerun threat down the field, Thomas will be the guy to grab. The fundamentals are the biggest question mark as Thomas rarely had to beat a jam or run a crisp route for the Yellow Jackets. Toss in a broken foot before the combine and workouts, there are still plenty of question marks. Thomas feels like a guy who will be drafted and just never quite live up to expectations.

Diagnosis: Bruce Banner

Tight End: Jimmy Graham, Miami
A basketball player at Da U, Jimmy Graham opted not to play overseas to try his hand for the Hurricanes football team, and he impressed. An elite red zone target this past year, Graham shot up draft boards and NFL scouts began to take notice. He is a shade over 6’6 at 260 pounds and a nightmare for a linebacker to cover. He gives effort as a blocker though is not refined, and ultimately has the upside NFL teams want in a tight end. The lack of production and inconsistency in only one year of play is a big fear to take him early, but he has the work ethic and skill to become a very good NFL TE.

Diagnosis: The Hulk

Offensive Line: Bruce Campbell, Maryland
There may not be a better player to highlight in this article than Bruce Campbell. He had a Tarzan type of workout at the combine, wowing teams with speed, athleticism, size, strength, and everything inbetween. On film, he looks like Jane, allowing undersized defensive players to overpower him and not getting any push in the run game. The question is which player will we get in the NFL? Offensive Line coaches are salivating over the possibilities of a stud left tackle with Hall of Fame upside. If he lives up to potential, the upside is endless and many coaches will feel they can coach him up to that. The major problem is, most times those picks don’t work out and Campbell may just be another in a long line of athletic busts.

Diagnosis: Bruce Banner

Defensive Line: Carlos Dunlap, Florida
Speaking of high upside players, Carlos Dunlap fits the bill along the defensive line. 6’6 and 27 pounds with 4.7 speed, Dunlap is one of the best athletes in the draft. On tape, he flashes brilliance at times, dominating defenses and shedding NFL talent block like they were D3 guys. The downside comes with work ethic and motor. Dunlap took plays off, and sometimes whole quarters off as a player. It gives teams pause in giving a player tons of money who may not put in the effort and has maturity issues. We have seen played like Michael Johnson last year fall due to the same issues, so Dunlap’s value is as a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. It is tough to overlook the work ethic issues, and ultimately could force him to bust out of the league.

Diagnosis: Bruce Banner

Linebacker: Sergio Kindle, Texas
Many times, a player going back for their Senior year when they could be a first round pick as a junior brings about more questions than answers. This is the situation with Sergio Kindle who seemed to digress in terms of sacks with 10 as a junior and 5.5 as a senior. This has been the biggest knock on him, though he did increase production of tackles (45 to 70,) and TFLs (12.5 to 22). Kindle is a classic blitzer who will play linebacker at the next level despite playing both DE and LB in college. He has great range and always seems to be in the backfield and pressuring the QB. If he fits a defense, Kindle could be a sack master at the next level.

Diagnosis: The Hulk

Cornerback: Patrick Robinson, Florida State
Robinson is another classic player who has all the physical talent but doesn’t seem to put it together on tape. His crowning moment was chasing down speedster Noel Devine this year in the Gator Bowl and showcasing his speed. Robinson is a big corner, reminiscent of past Seminole corners like Antonio Cromartie. With sub 4.4 speed at 6’0 and 190 pounds, Robinson’s elite physical tools may endear him to a team in the 2nd round. Will he be successful? The tape on Robinson isn’t very flattering, often getting beat and physically outmatched game after game. A team will get a player who will be a major headache at times, but will also make big plays. Ultimately, this doesn’t make him a starter in the NFL and will flounder in the league.

Diagnosis: Bruce Banner

Safety: Taylor Mays, USC
Taylor Mays’ value in the NFL draft is all over the map. Sub 4.3 speed at 6’3 and 230 pounds shows the ultimate upside. Only his head and learning the game is what stops Taylor Mays from being a Troy Polamalu type of safety in the pros. His junior year, Mays played on an amazing USC defense with now pros like Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, and Fili Moala. He tore up the college scene breaking up passes and punishing opposing runners and receivers. As a senior, Mays missed a lot of big tackles and didn’t make many plays on the ball. His future in the NFL likely is as an in the box safety who can punish anyone over the middle and make big plays in the run game. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders and proper coaching could turn him into a great player. On a limb, Taylor Mays could develop into a scary safety teams will have to gameplan for.

Diagnosis: The Hulk

Tight Ends: Where’s the value?

Shane Hallam — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 04:43:57 +0000

By Shane Hallam – 4/3/10

Something I have discussed ad nauseam with draft experts, fans, and friends is the Tight End crop in this year’s draft class. The group as a whole is diverse, talented, and one of the best crops we have seen in years. I break down the class into four distinct groups:

1. Pass-Catchers: Guys who are purely there to catch balls and be match-up nightmares. No blocking for the group here. Players in this group are Aaron Hernandez, Dorin Dickerson, Jimmy Graham, Dennis Pitta, Garrett Graham, Ed Dickson, etc.

2. Blockers: Guys who will be the inline blockers that teams look for to contribute in run and pass blocking. Likely #2 TEs whose contributions go unseen by many fans. Players in this group are Michael Hoomanawanui, Colin Peek, Brody Eldridge, Nate Byham, etc.

3. Complete Package: Guys who can block as well as catch passes. Your tried and true #1 TEs who can do it all, but likely have other issues (often medical,) Players in this group are: Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski, Tony Moeaki, Clay Harbor, etc.

Now that we have these groupings, where do they all go? This question remains because the talent is absurd. There is very little difference between Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham and Dennis Pitta as pass catching TEs. There is very little difference between Michael Hoomanawanui, Nate Byham, and Colin Peek as blockers. There is very little difference between Rob Gronkowski and Tony Moeaki from the players in the other two groups if a team is looking for a specialized player. This is why on draft day, these Tight Ends may fall, and it could look very similar to last season
Jermaine Gresham will play the Brandon Pettigrew role here. A Tight End whose value is easily in the Top 20 of the draft. A Physical player who is an underrated blocker, both Gresham and Pettigrew could be game changers for the offense that selects them. Gresham is probably a more polished receiving threat as well, and without injury, could have been a Top 15 pick. Instead, he may end up in the late 1st round to a team like the Bengals, Patriots, or Ravens as a steal for years to come.

Now imagine you are a team like the Miami Dolphins. You addressed defense in the first round, and know that you want to grab a Tight End at some point to bring in and compete. Also, imagine you are the Baltimore Ravens who missed out on Jermaine Gresham in the first, but want to find a starting TE in this draft. Do you take Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski in Round 2? Or do you wait two rounds and see who falls?

This is where value comes into play. Yes, in most drafts, a complete player like Gronkowski or an elite pass catcher like Hernandez are early 2nd round values, in this draft, these teams will wait until their horizontal board is almost up. They will wait for teams to snatch Hernandez, Gronkowski, Dickerson, and Jimmy Graham in the 3rd round. Then in the 4th or 5th, they can get Dennis Pitta or Tony Moeaki and be perfectly content. Does this mean the players going in the 4th or 5th aren’t very talented? Not at all, it is all about value.

Compare this to the weak Quarterback or Cornerback class at the top, and you’ll see those positions flying off the board much earlier than value indicates. Don’t be fooled if a good Tight End is selected in the 5th round, it only means that team was smart to wait.

2 Round Mock Draft – March 23rd

Shane Hallam — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 06:01:20 +0000

Shane Hallam takes you through another mock draft and this time, it’s a two rounder. See who Shane thinks will rise or fall based on the Combine as well as Pro Days.

1. St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford – QB – Oklahoma

The NFL is a league centered around the Quarterback position. Think about what positions usually do high in drafts. Quarterbacks, Left Tackles to protect the Quarterback, and pass rushers who can pressure the Quarterback. Even if Ram’s GM Dunleavy has one of the amazingly talented DTs rated above Sam Bradford, it may be tough for him to pass on a QB with the profile of Sam Bradford. A Heisman Trophy winner with exceptional accuracy and a cerebral football mind, Bradford has the tools to be a successful NFL starter. Though there are questions about his ability to take hits and how he’ll hold up under pressure, he has the most upside of the QBs at his talent level and likely will go #1 overall. If the Rams do pass on Bradford, it would likely be for Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, establishing a downright nasty defensive line.

2. Detroit Lions

Ndamunkong Suh – DT – Nebraska

Scouting Report

Even after trading for DT Corey Williams, the Lions could use some big upgrades along their defensive front. Grady Jackson is gone, and last year’s pick in the 4th round out of Stillman, Sammie Lee Hill, is still developing. Being able to draft a player of Ndamukong Suh’s skill and resume at #2 has to have Lions fans excited. Last year’s regime showed they wouldn’t hesitate to take the best player available at a position of some need. This would create a defensive front next year of Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril, a group that can contend with any offensive line in the NFL. Suh could aid the Lions in both passing defense with solid pass rush ability, as well as giving them a bigger presence against the run. Though they would love to upgrade the LT spot with a player like Russell Okung to help protect Matthew Stafford, it is an area that can be addressed a bit later in the draft.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gerald McCoy – DT – Oklahoma

The Buccaneers have had their eye on Gerald McCoy for awhile, including sending GM Mark Dominik to the Sooners Bowl game against Stanford to watch him. If he does indeed fall to #3, the Bucs would jump at the opportunity to instantly upgrade their defense with another Warren Sapp type of player. Though Gerald McCoy didn’t have the press clippings of Ndamukong Suh, he is just as good a player. McCoy has some of the best pass rush skills of a DT to come out for the draft in a long time, something he showed off every game at Oklahoma. Also, don’t discount the possibility that Tampa Bay trades down from this spot if possible (perhaps with Denver for Brandon Marshall).

4. Washington Redskins

Jimmy Clausen – QB – Notre Dame

The Washington Redskins have always been a team who love making a splash. Whether it be in free agency with Albert Haynesworth and Larry Johnson, or often trading draft picks for big name players. With Mike Shannahan coming on board, he may want to make a similar splash taking a QB of the future to groom. If Sam Bradford does go #1, Shannahan will have to choose whether to take Jimmy Clausen or pass on a QB until the midrounds. Clausen has a similar fiery attitude of Shannhan’s last first round QB selection, Jay Cutler. Clausen has all the tools to be a solid NFL QB, though he doesn’t jump out as a downright special player. Solid arm strength, accuracy, and big game experience shine on his resume, though he doesn’t have Top 5 talent. With the QB position being in such high demand however, Clausen may be pushed way up the board. If the Redskins choose to go another way, it likely would be to get a stable LT in Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Eric Berry – S – Tennessee

Scouting Report

If there is one skillset the Chiefs lack on defense, it is a playmaker. Though they have some solid players, there is no amazing player on the D that can change the game. Eric Berry would instantly give the Chiefs a player who can change the way the team plays defense. Berry has the size, speed, coverage ability, and hitting ability that you look for in a safety prospect. He plays recklessly, and offenses will always have to know where he is on the field. Safety is a position of need in Kansas City after releasing Bernard Pollard last year and having subpar play by Mike Brown and John McGraw. GM Scott Pioli showed last year with the selection of Tyson Jackson that he isn’t afraid to draft good football players who can contribute, even if the position isn’t the most important. This trend fits Berry, and could be a slam dunk. If the Chiefs do want to upgrade the offense, bringing in a top Offensive Tackle like Russell Okung or Iowa’s Bryan Bulaga would also make sense.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Okung – OT – Oklahoma State

The Pete Carroll era in Seattle has started and is coming under a bit of criticism from fans. Trading away Daryl Tapp (and soon Rob Sims,) along with trading a 3rd round selection in 2011 and swapping 2nd round picks for Charlie Whitehurst haven’t been seen as the best moves by some fans. That being said, Seattle has plenty of ammo and will bring in youth this year. One place to start is on the offensive line as Walter Jones is retiring from football. If Seattle could land the top offensive tackle at #6 in Russell Okung, they should be ecstatic. Okung showed the ability to man the blind side for Oklahoma State the past few seasons, and even with some inconsistent moments, he has shown athleticism, strength, and the intangibles teams look for. This would fit Carroll’s line of thinking, and give a great bookend for new QB Charlie Whitehurst. The Seahawks may also look for a playmaker here like Clemson’s CJ Spiller or a safety like Taylor Mays to fill in the spot left open by releasing Deon Grant.

7. Cleveland Browns

Jason Pierre-Paul – DE – South Florida

Mike Holmgren has not been afraid to shake up the Cleveland Browns roster this offseason to try and rebuild the ailing franchise. From trading away Brady Quinn and Kamerion Wimbley to signing offensive linemen like Tony Pashos, the Browns are changing their roster around. One of the most important features for a rebuilding team is pass rush, which the Browns may look for after trading Wimbley. The question is if the Browns go after the sure player in Derrick Morgan/Brandon Graham, or if they go for the home run in Jason Pierre-Paul. Though Kokinis went for safe players, perhaps Holmgren will try and hit a homerun. Jason Pierre-Paul is an intriguing prospect who only has one year of Division 1 experience after coming in as a JUCO. His high motor, long arms, and extraordinary athleticism shine on tape, endearing him to teams. He is about 270 pounds and can be molded into a 3-4 OLB in the Browns scheme with huge upside. The Browns are looking to upgrade the secondary though, so they could still take Joe Haden from Florida.

8. Oakland Raiders

Anthony Davis – OT – Rutgers

The Raiders have had a few picks the last few years that have been less than stellar. Hopefully this year the Raiders will have a bit more success, but who knows what Al Davis will do at the #8 pick. Though many have a player like Bruce Campbell mocked to the Raiders, they could opt to go in another way that has a bit more value. Anthony Davis out of Rutgers shows athleticism on the field and fits the mold of measureables the Raiders look for. Despite having a poor combine and falling down some team’s boards, his tape is hard to deny. He seems like the type of player the Raiders go after, a physical freak who may need some coaching and motivation to succeed in the NFL. Davis has the ideals to be a Left Tackle in the NFL, nimble feet, good strength, and uses his hands well. If he plays up to his potential, he should be an excellent player for years to come. If not, it may be another recent bust for the Raiders.

9. Buffalo Bills

Bryan Bulaga – OT – Iowa

The Bills struggled mightily last year without consistent QB play, poor offensive line player, and a coaching staff in flux. With Chan Gailey coming in, he will likely want to fix some of the offensive woes this game faced, and may start at the Left Tackle position with a guy like Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga was a mainstay at Iowa where he excelled in pass protection using his feet and fundamentals to halt pass rushers like Derrick Morgan in their tracks this past season. The Bills desperately need an upgrade in terms of pass protection this season. In 2008, the team gave up 38 sacks. In 2009, Bills QBs were sacked 46 times. If the Bills expect to bring in a QB and compete with the vertical passing games, protection should be the high priority. Chan Gailey’s offense focuses on a passer who can get out of the pocket and use the run to set-up that rolling out. An elite pass protector is necessary for success, and #9 is where to find one. The Bills could choose to find a Nose Tackle in their 3-4 defense though with Tennessee’s Dan Williams.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

Derrick Morgan – DE – Georgia Tech

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the absolute worst pass rushing team in the NFL last year, sacking the QB only 14 times all season. The signing of Aaron Kampman should improve that statline, but more help may be needed. 2008 first and second round picks Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves haven’t been as effective as the team hoped. In fact, Quentin Groves could even be cut before the season begins. If that happens, the team may want to grab a solid DE who can rush the passer as well as being stout against the run. A perfect fit would be Georgia Tech’s Derrick Morgan. Morgan had an extremely successful season with 12.5 sacks and 18.5 tackle for loss, and could bring this versatility to the Jaguars. He would be an ideal fit to rotate with Derrick Harvey and eventually start opposite of Kampman. The Jaguars may also opt to upgrade their Linebackers by bringing in Alabama’s Rolando McClain.

11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)

Dez Bryant – WR – Oklahoma State

If the Broncos get rid of Brandon Marshall, they surely will need to bring in a replacement at some point in the draft. If trading Marshall leaves the Broncos with the 11 pick still, Dez Bryant is surely a possibility. Will the Broncos take a chance on another WR with some attitude issues? McDaniels may if he can work with Dez starting on Day 1. Bryant is the most talented WR to be in the draft since Calvin Johnson with great athleticism, fluidity and use of his body. There are some questions looming about his speed and explosiveness, but there is no denying Bryant’s physical talent. The Broncos could look a number of different ways, an ILB in Rolando McClain, or an interior lineman in Maurkice Pouncey.

12. Miami Dolphins

Dan Williams – DT – Tennessee

After coaching Dan Williams in the Senior Bowl, Tony Sparano got to coach some big time nose tackles in Tennessee’s Dan Williams and Alabama’a Terrence Cody. The Dolphins may upgrade that nose position, opting for one of the two. Williams fits the Bill Parcells player bill better as a tough player in the trenches who has the ability to get it done in the NFL. Williams completely reinvigorated his stock this year by dominating opposing offensive lines and blocking the middle for opposing runners. On tape, he shows superior ability to take on blockers, find gaps, and make plays. With the signing of Karlos Dansby, the Dolphins are upgrading their defense to a more elite level, and Williams can be a piece of that. The Dolphins are a team that could go a number of ways this pick. A linebacker like Sergio Kindle would be a nice fit, or even a safety like Earl Thomas.

13. San Francisco 49ers

Trent Williams – OT – Oklahoma

Trent Williams of Oklahoma was a player who came out of the season with plenty of question marks. Is he athletic enough? Can he play LT in the NFL? At the combine, Williams seemed to answer these questions and more. After showing explosiveness, speed, and great footwork on drills, teams are buying that Williams could move into a LT or RT spot at the next level. At 13, the 49ers will be looking for a RT of the future to pair with Joe Staley. Adam Snyder and Marvel Smith didn’t live up for expectations and hurt the run and pass game for San Fran. Trent Williams should be an excellent addition to keep improving the offense. The 49ers could also look for a rangy FS like Earl Thomas, or an explosive playmaker like CJ Spiller.

14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)

C.J. Spiller – RB – Clemson

Scouting Report

If there is one thing the Seahawks lack on offense, it is an explosive playmaker on the offensive side of the ball. Though the team has filled the RB position with Julius Jones, Justin Forsett and Quinton Ganther, there could be room for an addition (especially if Julius Jones is let go). CJ Spiller is the clear-cut top runner in this draft with the ability to break the game open and pull away from defenders. At Clemson, Spiller was a dynamic return man and runner, often going between the tackles as well as kicking it outside. He has the toughness to excel in the NFL and there are teams that value him as a Top Ten talent. With electric players like Chris Johnson and Darren Sproles emerging as legitimate runners, teams are looking for the next big play threat. Spiller may be it. The Seahawks could also opt for a Safety like Taylor Mays here if Pete Carroll wants to bring in a USC player he worked with in college.

15. New York Giants

Rolando McClain – LB – Alabama

Scouting Report

The New York Giants defense has changed drastically this offseason. The signing of Antrel Rolle brought in a new coverage presence in the secondary, while losing veterans like DT Fred Robbins and LB Antonio Pierce have left a few holes to be filled. The Giants haven’t had an elite linebacker in years, which could lead to a position upgrade this offseason. A perfect fit would be the run-stuffing tank of Rolando McClain. Though he doesn’t have the versatility to go sideline to sideline, McClain does have some great physical skills. An inconsistent motor and possible hamstring injury he battled this year is giving teams a bit of pause, so 15 would be a nice landing spot. The Giants have also shown interest in CJ Spiller, or could opt for an improvement in offensive line depth with Bruce Campell or Mike Iupati.

16. Tennessee Titans

Joe Haden – CB – Florida

Scouting Report

The Tennessee Titans have never been afraid to pull the trigger on high upside players who may have question marks as prospects. Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Chris Henry all fit that mold. Jeff Fisher could opt to go after another player who has high risk high reward like Joe Haden. Haden has all the NFL skills with excellent technique and instincts combined with extremely impressive athleticism. Haden was an All-American player at Florida, coming from a successful high school system in Maryland. The big play ability and ball skills are very apparent on tape and endearing to NFL teams. The questions came in at the combine with Haden’s speed (though he seemed to answer those a bit at his Pro Day,) and if Florida buffered him with the sideline to avoid big plays against him. This could lead to Haden falling to the mid 1st, but it would be quite a steal at 16. The Titans had some major issues in the secondary, especially after an injury to Cortland Finnegan. He would be a nice #2 who could develop into a #1. The Titans could also opt for another Texas Longhorn in Sergio Kindle as a LB, or maybe a high upside DE in Florida’s Carlos Dunlap.

Evaluating the 40 yard dash

Shane Hallam — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 20:53:52 +0000

One of the most debated aspects of the predraft process is the 40 yard dash. At the NFL draft combine starting on February 27th, over 300 prospects will run on the track at Lucas Oil Stadium to show off their straight line speed. The result will be a sharp increase in numerous stocks and a decline in others. Why do two runs in February completely change the perception of three to four years of tape? The utilization of the 40 yard dash has come under much criticism in recent years of how scouts and General Managers utilize a number to choose one player over another who has been more productive throughout his college career. That being said, there are definite ways to analyze 40 times to learn more about prospects.

How does a 40 yard dash help scouts?

The most important aspect of the 40 is that it places all prospects on a level playing field to test straight line speed. No matter if a player went to Hillsdale, Rice, or Florida, this type of test gives scouts a quantifiable number to equal the playing field. Take for example Pro Bowl rookie Johnny Knox who came out of Abilene Christian. It was pretty obvious from watching the tape that Knox was playing at a higher level than his opponents. He was bigger, faster and stronger than the defenders at Tarleton State and Northwest Missouri State. But how did scouts know if that speed would translate at the NFL level? Was he a rare prospect in terms of speed or did he simply have middle of the road speed that looked better on film? When Johnny Knox ran a 4.34 at the combine last year, it validated the scouts that loved his film. It shows that he was faster than Penn State’s Derrick Williams or Florida’s Louis Murphy. It leveled the playing field, rose Knox’s stock, and allowed the Bears to make a more informed decision. An even bigger example is Tennessee Titan RB Chris Johnson. At the time of the pick, most criticized Titans General Manager Mike Reinfeldt for the pick since he made a major mistake on a similar runner the year before (more on that later). Chris Johnson came out of East Carolina University and put up over 1400 yards and 17 TDs his Senior year. Many didn’t think his body would hold up in the NFL or that his speed was no more than a Reggie Bush or Julius Jones type of runner. But when Johnson came out with a 4.24 and a faster 40 time than highly touted runner Darren McFadden, Johnson vaulted himself into the first round. All he has done is rushed for over 3,200 yards in only two seasons of work. The 40 time can be a useful tool in identifying these prospects who aren’t from major programs and compare them to those we see play against the “big boys.” Even with some bigger name prospects who look slower on film but run a fast 40 time, coaches know the ceiling of the players speed. If a Strength and Conditioning Coach can help these players hit their max speed in pads, then the sky is the limit. It is only one piece of the puzzle, but as speed becomes more of a factor in the NFL, the 40 yard dash will have a large impact on the draft process.

When can you use the 40 yard dash TOO much?

Many people criticize scouts and GMs for taking these 40 numbers and massively moving a players stock based solely on these two runs at the combine. If a scout has watched four years of tape, held interviews, and seen the player at All-Star games, should scouts use the 40 time to exponentially increase or decrease the stock of a player? Probably not. In 2007, the Tennessee Titans drafted an unknown player named Chris Henry out of Arizona in the 2nd round. Henry was a back-up running back for the Wildcats who didn’t even notch 1,000 yards total in his three years of play. Why was he drafted so high then? 40 time. Henry posted a 4.33 at the combine that year, which was faster than Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. The Titan’s fell in love with the speed and drafted a player with no blocking skills or vision. Two years later, Chris Henry is out of the league and the Titans would make a wiser decision the next year. It would be remiss to not mention the wide receiver situation last year. Darius Heyward-Bey was a fringe first round pick based on high upside and athleticism. After posting a 4.30 at the combine, Heyward-Bey began to endear himself to the teams, specifically Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders. We all know the story by now, the Raiders at #7 passed on top WR prospect Michael Crabtree for Heyward-Bey and if his rookie year is any indication, the outlook is not bright. It seems that when teams drastically increase a player’s value while ignoring tape, the results could be dire.

How should the 40 time be used?

The 40 time needs to be used as a conservative measure to validate the tape scouts are seeing and answer questions about speed for prospects where questions still remain. It can be used to open eyes about new prospects, but should not be used to overvalue a prospect. Also, when comparing 40 times from the present to years past, remember that the site of the combine has changed. Last year was the first year at the new Lucas Oil Stadium and the track seemed to be a little bit slower than it was in the RCA Dome. Keep this in mind when looking at the 40 times below for my predictions of this year’s times. Hopefully General Managers and scouts will take in all the information and make the most informed decisions for their franchises.

2010 Combine 40 Yard Dash Predictions

*Note: predictions based on game tape, Lucas Oil track speed, and previous year’s results

Quarterback:
Sam Bradford – 4.82
Jarrett Brown – 4.51
Daryll Clark – 4.57
Jimmy Clausen – *will not run the 40*
Armanti Edwards – 4.49
Mike Kafka – 4.61
Dan LeFevour – 4.66
Colt McCoy – 4.75
Tony Pike – 4.92
Jevan Snead – 4.95
Tim Tebow – 4.72

Running Back:
Jahvid Best – 4.40
LeGarrette Blount – 4.58
Anthony Dixon – 4.65
Jonathan Dwyer – 4.56
Toby Gerhart – 4.60
Montario Hardesty – 4.55
Trindon Holiday – 4.34
Stafon Johnson – 4.49
Ryan Matthews – 4.45
Dexter McCluster – 4.42
Joe McKnight – 4.41
C.J. Spiller – 4.37
Ben Tate – 4.51
Keith Toston – 4.53

Wide Receivers:
Danario Alexander – *will not run*
Arrelious Benn – 4.43
Dezmon Briscoe – 4.58
Dez Bryant – 4.39
Riley Cooper – 4.42
Eric Decker *Will not run*
Jacoby Ford – 4.36
Mardy Gilyard – 4.45
Brandon LaFell – 4.52
Taylor Price – 4.40
Andre Roberts – 4.55
Jordan Shipley – 4.47
Golden Tate – 4.53
Demaryius Thomas – *Will not run*
Blair White – 4.54
Damian Williams – 4.50
Jeremy Williams – 4.49
Mike Williams – 4.46

Tight Ends:
Nate Byham – 4.78
Dorin Dickerson – 4.66
Ed Dickson – 4.71
Garrett Graham – 4.68
Jimmy Graham – 4.63
Jermaine Gresham – 4.70
Ron Gronkowski – 4.75
Aaron Hernandez – 4.65
Michael Hoomanawanui – 4.80
Anthony McCoy – 4.73
Dennis Pitta – 4.72
Andrew Quarles – 4.76

Offensive Line:
Ciron Black – 5.51
Charles Brown – 5.12
Bryan Bulaga – 5.16
Bruce Campbell – 5.07
Selvish Capers – 5.25
Anthony Davis – 5.23
Vladimir Ducasse – 5.28
Mike Iupati – 5.31
Mike Johnson – 5.35
Russell Okung – 5.32
Maurkice Pouncey – 5.41
Rodger Saffold – 5.37
Jared Veldheer – 5.02
Ed Wang – 5.48
Trent Williams – 5.35

Defensive Line:
Tyson Alualu – 4.93
Alex Carrington – 4.87
Terrence Cody – 5.48
Jermaine Cunningham – 4.81
Carlos Dunlap – 4.75
Junior Galette – 4.73
Thaddeus Gibson – 4.72
Brandon Graham – 4.90
Everson Griffen – 4.81
Greg Hardy – 4.95
Jerry Hughes – 4.93
Arthur Jones – 4.97
Sergio Kindle – 4.81
Gerald McCoy – 4.94
Koa Misi – 4.78
Derrick Morgan – 4.75
Jared Odrick – 4.91
Jason Pierre-Paul – 4.69
Brian Price – 5.01
Ricky Sapp – 4.69
George Selvie – 4.89
Ndamukong Suh – 4.95
Dan Williams – 5.05
Linsey Witten – 4.90
Corey Wootton – 4.99
Jason Worilds – 4.84

Linebacker:
Pat Angerer – 4.86
Navorro Bowman – 4.75
Donald Butler – 4.77
Rennie Curran – 4.80
Sean Lee – 4.83
Rolando McClain – 4.73
Roddrick Muckelroy – 4.79
Eric Norwood – 4.81
Brandon Spikes – 4.78
Daryl Washington – 4.75
Sean Weatherspoon – 4.78

Secondary:
Nate Allen – 4.54
Javier Arenas – 4.52
Larry Asante – 4.58
Eric Berry – 4.48
Morgan Burnett – 4.56
Chris Chancellor – 4.58
Kam Chancellor – 4.62
Perrish Cox – 4.54
Dominique Franks – 4.49
Brandon Ghee – 4.51
Joe Haden – 4.46
Kareem Jackson – 4.49
Chad Jones – 4.47
Reshad Jones – 4.58
Myron Lewis – 4.50
Trevard Lindley – 4.60
Taylor Mays – 4.45
Kyle McCarthy – 4.55
Devin McCourty – 4.47
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah – 4.50
Patrick Robinson – 4.48
Myron Rolle – 4.58
Amari Spievey – 4.52
Earl Thomas – 4.51
Syd’Quan Thompson – 4.55
Alterraun Verner – 4.57
Donovan Warren – 4.53
Kyle Wilson – 4.44
Major Wright – 4.52

Mock Draft – February 12th

Shane Hallam — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 21:04:28 +0000

The Senior Bowl evaluations are complete and the Combine is coming up soon. Our newest contributor, Shane Hallam, takes you through his latest first round mock as draft season is now in full swing!

1. St. Louis Rams

Ndamukong Suh – DT – Nebraska

Ndamukong Suh had to build a new trophy shelf after winning the Outland Trophy, Lombardi, Bednarik, and Nagurski Award. As he mauled interior linemen and wrestled QBs to the ground, Ndamukong Suh has vaulted his way to being a possible #1 pick in the NFL draft. The St. Louis Rams could look one of two ways at this pick. They can take Suh, the most dominant defensive player in this draft, or if they fall in love with a QB like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, that position is a possibility. Some out there think they will avoid Suh with a lot of money tied up in defensive linemen Chris Long and Adam Carriker, but it is looking like the Rams address the QB position via FA or trade, which leaves them with Suh or Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy.

Scouting Report

2. Detroit Lions

Gerald McCoy – DT – Oklahoma

With all of the focus on Ndamukong Suh, many are overlooking a Defensive Tackle who is rated just as highly in Gerald McCoy. An extremely stout player against the run who can also provide some pass rush up the middle, McCoy would provide an instant upgrade for the Detroit Lions defense. Though Detroit has many needs ranging from an elite LT to a RB to a Corner, a big body in the middle of the defense could really change this team for the better. One of the two top DTs is a near slam dunk for the Lions, though they could opt for one of the top LTs in Anthony Davis or Russell Okung if their prime goal is to protect QB Matthew Stafford.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eric Berry – S – Tennessee

There is no secret of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers love for Gerald McCoy, and if he doesn’t fall to three, there is sure to be disappointment. If a DT is not available, the Bucs are still likely to bolster their defense. One impact player would be Safety Eric Berry from Tennessee who is being compared to the late Sean Taylor as an NFL prospect. Berry adjusts his game to whatever his team needs. Whether it be getting in the box to lay the lumber on runners or playing center field and reading quarterbacks. Though Safety isn’t the largest need for the Bucs, getting a gamechanger to pair with emerging star Aqib Talib could give Tampa a nasty secondary for years to come. The Bucs could look for a major offensive weapon here in WR Dez Bryant if they wanted to as well.

4. Washington Redskins

Sam Bradford – QB – Oklahoma

With rumors coming out from Washington that Shannahan is excited and ready to draft a QB and develop him, it is looking more likely that the Skins will take a chance on either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen at #4 overall. If both are available, there is a definite question of which fits Shannahan’s coaching philosophy more. He likes players who can roll out of the pocket and make sharp accurate throws. Neither of these two quite fit that bill, but it looks likely that Sam Bradford is the higher rated QB in NFL circles. Bradford’s shoulder is almost done with recovery, and he will throw at his pro day to show off his arm. If Bruce Allen and Shannahan like what they see, they could lean toward Bradford. The other big area that needs addressing is offensive line after Chris Samuels injuries have caught up with him, so the Skins may opt for Offensive Tackles Anthony Davis from Rutgers or Russell Okung from Oklahoma State.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Rolando McClain – LB – Alabama

If the top four shakes out the way it has, I expect the Chiefs may try to move down and pick up some extra picks instead of reaching for the player they want. Last year, the Chiefs attempted to move down before picking up DE Tyson Jackson. This year, they may reach if they have to for Linebacker Rolando McClain if no move is available. Inside Linebackers just don’t go this high. Even some of the best in the NFL (Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, etc,) were nowhere close to Top 5 picks, but Scott Pioli has reached a bit when he loves a prospect. This doesn’t mean that Rolando McClain isn’t talented however. He has very little flaws, great lateral movement, and has excellent technique when tackling. He would be a perfect fit for a 3-4 defense inside and provide a Patrick Willis type of impact for a team. If Eric Berry falls here, the Chiefs may want to upgrade one of their weakest positions with him, or build their offensive line more with an Offensive Tackle.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Anthony Davis – OT – Rutgers

With Walter Jones announcing his likely retirement, the Left Tackle position is in a state of emergency for the Seahawks. Even if Pete Carroll wanted to grab a young signal caller, it likely would not help without protection up front for him. There is a debate looming about who the best offensive tackle in this draft is, Anthony Davis or Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung. Okung is a bit worse in run protection and sometimes lacks the punch a LT needs, but Davis is a bit more raw with more upside. Teams will ultimately take Davis for his upside, and he would be an excellent fit in a place like Seattle that is in a rebuilding mode. The Seahawks could opt for Jimmy Clausen, a player Pete Carroll had plenty of looks at when facing off against Notre Dame.

7. Cleveland Browns

Joe Haden – CB – Florida

The Browns haven’t been secretive about their love for top cornerback Joe Haden. Where there is this much smoke, there almost usually is some fire. Haden picked the perfect season to opt for the NFL draft since there is no other corner in this draft even close to his skill level. Haden has the potential to be a Darrelle Revis type of corner with his speed, athleticism, and discipline at the position. The Browns have a solid corner in Eric Wright, but need a true #1 guy at the position. This can allow an increased pass rush and more focus on playing WRs in man for Cleveland, which can lead to a better defense overall. Cleveland could also look at a pass rusher like Georgia Tech’s Derrick Morgan or Texas’ Sergio Kindle (though don’t be surprised if they are the team to land Julius Peppers). They may even pull the trigger on Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant to get an actual #1 WR.

8. Oakland Raiders

Jason Pierre-Paul – DE – South Florida

Raiders fans always get angry when Mock Drafts cite Al Davis’ love for athleticism and speed. The fact of the matter is, we are trying to predict the NFL draft and have to look at a team’s history to do so. Despite this love by Mr. Davis, the Raiders rarely pick a position that isn’t a need. One big need this season is defensive end. Jason Pierre-Paul is a player sure to wow at the combine and convince teams he has Top Ten potential. JPP has only played one year of Division 1 football after he moved from Community College to USF this past season. With a gigantic wingspan, tons of speed pass rush moves, and a lot more potential, he could be the first pass rusher off the board. Seems like an ideal fit for the Raiders. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they take other elite athletic specimens like USC Safety Taylor Mays or Defensive End Everson Griffen.

9. Buffalo Bills

Jimmy Clausen- QB – Notre Dame

Chan Gailey is taking over a Bills Offense where Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t cut it as NFL Quarterbacks. If one of the two top QBs fall to 9, it would be difficult for the Bills to pass on one. Unless they trade for a player like Michael Vick, this is a great fit at 9. Jimmy Clausen has been groomed for draft day since he was in middle school. He can make most NFL throws, has played in a pro system, and is very confident in his abilities. Clausen is the type that does nothing amazingly well, but he seems to do everything good. Despite not winning the big games at Notre Dame, teams still like his leadership as well. If neither QB is available, the Bills could also take another offensive weapon in Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant.

10. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)

Dez Bryant – WR – Oklahoma State

This pick is contingent on one thing, Brandon Marshall being ushered out of town. If he is gone, the Broncos desperately need a playmaker at WR. Eddie Royal took a huge step back in his second year, and there is very little depth behind him. Dez Bryant is a surefire Top 10 pick, and a better a prospect than last year’s Michael Crabtree. He has great speed, runs excellent routes, and uses his body very well. The worries about him being suspended and not playing most of his senior season are few and far between. A true #1 talent at WR, Dez Bryant is heads and tails above the rest of this WR class. Other options for the Broncos could be a LB like Rolando McClain or Georgia Tech’s Derrick Morgan.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars

Derrick Morgan – DE – Georgia Tech

The Jaguars aren’t going to take Tim Tebow at #11 overall. Even if they really want him, Jacksonville will trade back into the first or second round to nab him. The position that lacked the most production for Jacksonville was their pass rushers. 2008 draft picks of Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves haven’t made any impact, so it is time to move on. Derrick Morgan has been one of the most productive pass rushers in this draft who has shown a knack for getting to the QB. He uses a variety of power and speed rushing moves and has been cited by scouts as having Top 5 talent. It would be an excellent fit for the Jaguars and perhaps can help bolster their pass defense. The Jaguars could also look for an interior lineman like UCLA DT Brian Price or LB like Rolando McClain.

12. Miami Dolphins

Sergio Kindle – OLB – Texas

Joey Porter has been running his mouth and is likely to be cut. There is not much pass rush coming from the other side of the LB corp, so it is a definite need for the Miami Dolphins. A perfect fit for the Dolphins defense is pass rusher Sergio Kindle from the Texas Longhorns. Kindle had a super productive junior year then returned as a senior where he didn’t quite live up to the hype statistically. That being said, Kindle was still a monster pass rusher, getting into the backfield and hurrying opposing quarterbacks. He is the type of player Bill Parcells loves and should find a starting spot on the Fins D. Another possibility is an upgrade in NT as Coach Tony Sparano coached two great Nose Tackles in the Senior Bowl in Alabama’s Terrence Cody and Tennessee’s Dan Williams.

13. San Francisco 49ers

Russell Okung – OT – Oklahoma State

One major area of concern for the 49ers is the offensive line and their ability to protect their QB. LT Joe Staley has been solid, but they need to upgrade the RT position and interior linemen. One way to do this is to draft a big time OT and move either Staley or the newly acquired to the right tackle position. Russell Okung is a potential Top 5 pick who would be a clear steal at #13 for the 49ers. Okung could fit at left or right tackle and shows some excellent footwork as a pass protector. He could have been a Top 15 pick last year, but opted to come back for his senior season. If he performs well at the combine, the 49ers may never have a shot at him. San Francisco could also take a playmaker like Clemson RB CJ Spiller.

14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)

C.J. Spiller – RB – Clemson

The Seahawks offense felt so bland last year with little to no playmakers and often disappearing for games at a time. One position Pete Carroll always seemed to have at USC was an electric playmaker at the RB position who had speed, hands, and could run away from defenses. This is the description of the top RB prospect in this draft, CJ Spiller. The team that drafts Spiller upgrades their team in two ways. First, they get an instant Top 5 NFL return man who could turn a team like Seattle (who has not had a Kick Return or Punt Return for a TD in two years,) and make them a top return team. Along with that, he can be an explosive runner who hits the edge, catches the ball, and can even run up the gut. Many scouts are citing CJ Spiller as a Top 5 prospect, but he may fall due to a lack of need at RB. Pete Carroll may also opt to take “his guy” in Safety Taylor Mays out of USC.

Scouting Report

15. New York Giants

Brian Price – DT – UCLA

By their standards, the New York Giants had an extremely disappointing year. They were middle of the pack on defense against both the run and pass and should be looking for a defensive upgrade, especially since they have a young offense that just needs time more than another rookie. One player the Giants have shown interest in is Defensive Tackle Brian Price. The Giants even sent a scout to the Bruins Bowl Game solely to watch Price in action. With uncertainty at a number of their defensive linemen (Osi Umenyiora, Barry Coefield, Fred Robbins, etc,) a defensive tackle could be a good addition. Price has a ton of pass rushing ability and often required a double team at the college level. With a mean streak a mile wide, Price would be a great fit in New York. The Giants could also look for an outside linebacker like Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon or a Safety like USC’s Taylor Mays.

16. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina) *

Everson Griffen – DE – USC

With a second first round pick, the 49ers can address both offense and defense and instantly upgrade their team. After making a move on the offensive line, the next area of the team that needs help is the pass rush. Manny Lawson has been hot and cold, while Parys Haralson hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations either. One player who could help the 49ers is athletic freak, USC DE Everson Griffen. Though Griffen is likely a bit lower on team’s draft boards right now, there is little doubt that he will soar up boards after showing his athleticism at the combine. Griffen is small enough to move to OLB, or could even bulk up a little bit and contribute for the 49ers as a 3-4 DE. Either way, a starting niche should be found for Griffen in a 49er uniform. The 49ers could also opt for USC Safety Taylor Mays to improve their secondary.