Feb
2
2011
Final Verdict
There’s no denying that here in late January the race for the First Overall Pick is wide open. Carolina has only just begun to form relationships with these prospects at the most basic level. Projecting this pick is an enormous guessing game and will be that way for months. Head Coach Ron Rivera is evaluating what he has in place and the results of his assessment won’t be known until the NFL Draft. The team will surely use smoke-screens and be purposely ambiguous throughout the process. Up into the week of the draft itself, I expect the Panthers will be negotiating with each one of the players I listed in this article. My gut guides me toward three favorites, chosen perhaps for positional reasons over sheer value. Those three would be: Cam Newton, Nick Fairley, and Da’Quan Bowers.
If the draft were held today, it would almost certainly be Bowers or Fairley. It’s important to note the draft will occur in late April, after the Panthers have gotten a chance to talk to each player at length and watch each player workout. Though he appears to be the best fit and perhaps the most talented player in the class, Nick Fairley lacks some professional traits and may not prove himself to be a suitable face of this struggling franchise. Da’Quan Bowers is one of this class’ safest bets, but with some promising young players at the Defensive End position, the Panthers may not be racing to add another so high on draft day. That leaves me with Cameron Newton.
Out of the players I listed, Newton seems like the least likely at this point to go First Overall and rather the most likely to fall out of the Top 10 all together. He won’t throw at the NFL Combine, so teams will be watching him throw in a controlled, choreographed setting at his Pro Day. His workout will create a buzz around the league and should cement him as the top Quarterback on most boards in this weak class. His charismatic personality will help him say all the right things during the pre-draft process while coming across as mature and driven. Carolina’s Achilles heel a year ago was their Quarterback play. The common theory is: if you don’t have a franchise Quarterback on the roster then you better make it the off-season’s top priority. I think that’s exactly what they will do. Jimmy Clausen will be a nice stop-gap starter while Newton learns to NFL game and may wind up building some trade value & get a chance to start elsewhere in 2012. So, although it is dependent on a whole lot of early speculation, I’d like to endorse Cameron Newton as my prediction as 2011’s First Overall Pick to the Carolina Panthers.
Ryan Lownes
Ryan is currently an undergraduate student at Ohio University pursuing a degree in Sport Management. He has been attending the NFL Draft in New York City since 2005 and has aspirations of a career in scouting. He is currently a draft writer and analyst on the Draft Breakdown team, posting his latest rankings, mock drafts, scouting reports, and more. Be sure to follow Ryan on twitter for year-round NFL Draft analysis.
Follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanlownes. See all posts for Ryan Lownes
Pingback: Tweets that mention Draft Breakdown — Carolina’s Dilemma: Picking First In A Weak Draft -- Topsy.com
Newton will NEVER happen in Carolina. Owner Jerry Richardson places a PREMIUM on character, and by all accounts that is an issue with the Newton family.
Additionally your notion that the panthers need an upgrade at just about every position is absurd. They had 3 pro bowlers this years. LG, C, and MLB, are all strengths. Actually, when healthy their OL has a whole is one of the best in the NFC. They were not healthy this year. Pair that with the 1-2 punch of Deangelo (also not healthy this year), and J-Stew, you have a formidable offense. Panthers issues the last few years was the meddling, conservative, stubborn head coach. Panthers have the talent to open it up with some offensive creativity. Biggest problem was and will be QB play. That determines everything.
“Biggest problem was and will be QB play” – “Pair that with the 1-2 punch of Deangelo (also not healthy this year), and J-Stew, you have a formidable offense” …. I don’t think you can try to say their biggest problem is and will be the QB position then claim to have a formidable offense. They were 13th in the league running the ball, yet dead last in passing which dragged them down to dead last in the NFL in total offense. They have some pieces there, as you mentioned on the OL and RB, but the main thing holding the Carolina Panthers back from winning this past year & next year (if they choose not to address it.)
I made the comment about the team being able to upgrade anywhere as it relates to the 1st Overall pick. You listed the team strengths, but consider the weaknesses at QB, DT, WR, TE, CB, DE, OLB, and RG. All the players I listed above in my article fill big voids for Carolina. In fact, the Top 10 players on my current board all would fill needs for your Panthers. So their team needs really can’t help you narrow down the prospects Carolina could pick at #1. There isn’t a #1 Overall caliber MLB or RB out there, so there isn’t anyone you can simply write-off.
Additionally, I think the Panthers will face the task of identifying Cameron Newton’s actual character concerns. Personally, it looks to me like Cecil Newton is the guy with all the red flags. If Cam continues to let his Dad pull the strings, however, it may convince the league of his lack of maturity. Still, you sit the guy down in a room one-on-one and get a feel for him as a person. A lot of people have found the guy to have a charming personality with a passion for the game. I think you need to sit him down and get a feel for how coachable the guy is and what he’s got right now in terms of a football IQ. I expect we’ll hear some feedback from coaches/scouts on Newton’s character & personality by March or so.
Out of this group, I personally think Nick Fairley has the most concerning character. He’ll still likely be drafted Top 5, but at 1st Overall his professionalism and intelligence has to be a big concern. I really just have a hard time envisioning him convince the Panthers (with words) that he’s the right pick for them at #1. Will probably come down to Bowers and Newton (assuming Cam makes the right moves from now to April.)
So you don’t want to post my previous comment? Why would the Panthers draft another qb project??? You forget that Clausen was Hurney’s call, Hurney is still GM… despite the horrible season they will try to work with Clausen and bring in a veteran qb. Quit sucking off Newton, he will be lucky to be drafted in the top 15.
The panthers will try to trade the pick, if they can’t they will draft Fairley. Yes there are concerns, but Rivera is a disciplinarian he will mold Nick into a beast. If the panthers go after a qb, it will be a cheap veteran most likely Billy Volek.
Who in the world would consider trading up to this 1st Pick? There is absolutely no trade market for the pick. If the Panthers wanted to get rid of it the only way that MIGHT work would be letting the 10 minute clock run out. Also, what project QB do the Panthers have? 2010 6th Rounder Tony Pike? Jimmy Clausen was a guy that came to the league from a pro-style offense with good throwing mechanics, if he was a guy that had the talent to play in the league he should be able to fit in relatively early. I think he still has the talent, but I don’t know that he the mental makeup to lead a team and win games in the NFL. To consider Carolina’s taking a QB with the 1st pick, you have to acknowledge it’s not like Clausen was any kind of a big investment, earning roughly $750,000 a year. They were already committed to leaving Clausen if Andrew Luck had declared.
As soon as Carolina goes after that cheap veteran I’ll be changing my tune. The whole point of writing the article was because the pick is wide open at this point. With QB being the teams obvious achilles heel, the position is likely to be the team’s first priority. As it stands right now, it’s the biggest question mark for the Panthers. I don’t see them going after Cam if they go out and sign a QB. If I were that stubborn I don’t think I’d have chosen to include and profile four different players.
Also, I’m fine with people grading Newton outside the Top 15-20, I can see why. Still, I’m pretty sure at this point that he’ll be the first QB drafted, likely among the draft’s Top 5 picks. If Carolina doesn’t take him, Buffalo and Arizona also look like great landing spots for him. Personally, I think the character issues are just a little overblown by fans and his upside exceeds perhaps any other player in this draft class. He’s got a ways to go, though, before I feel comfortable putting him on the field. Could really thrive if given 8-16 games with the clipboard.
The way Richardson treats brees and manning imagine what he would do to Newton haha!