Originally posted at NFL Draft Geek.
Once again, we are clearly shown by the 2009 NFL Draft, just how much of an uncertainty the NFL Draft really is. Everybody thinks they are getting a superstar with their 1st round pick, but the truth is, only about 17% of 1st Round Picks make multiple Pro-Bowls. This year stuck right to that mold, as currently, only 6 of the 32 1st Round Picks have made the Pro-Bowl (18%). Four out of the first 7 Picks were total busts, but the “Bust Rate” (F) wasn’t too terrible (25%) Compared to a usual average of 30%. The “Hit Rate” (B or Higher) was actually pretty high, at 46%. However, the real problem with this draft class proved to be a severe lack of depth, with very few “Gems” found in the later rounds. After Round One, you can make the argument for only about 7-10 Guys as real impact players (Only 4 Pro-Bowlers). So once again, after 256 Selections, we have about 20-25 Impact Players (7-9%), and 10 Pro-Bowlers (4%). There we have it folks, the NFL Draft for you! I guess this is why we love it! Without further ado, let’s get to it now and really break down the 1st Round!
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford – QB – Georgia
If we had written this article at the same time last year, it’s possible the grade this pick could have been about a D. Stafford’s NFL Career got off to a very unfortunate start as he struggled with many different injuries as a Rookie, then in the very first game of the 2010 Season got his throwing shoulder smashed by Julius Peppers and missed virtually the entire season. 2011 was the make-or-break season for him, and it proved to be Stafford’s coming out party as he threw for the 5th most yards in NFL History, with 5,038. Stafford to Calvin Johnson is an unstoppable combo, and they show no signs up slowing up. If Stafford can stay healthy, and be anything near what he was last year, he’ll be one of the elite QB’s in the league. It took some patience, but this #1 Selection provided dividends!
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith – OT – Baylor
Going into draft day, the Rams were torn between taking either Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe. Word out of the Rams camp is that the coaching staff wanted Monroe because he was more ready, while the front office wanted Smith because they liked his potential. Well the front office won the argument and that’s a big reason why the Rams had the #2 pick in the 2011, for the 3rd straight year. While Monroe has turned into a steady LT for the Jaguars, Smith struggled with consistency, injuries, and was even moved to RT. Even at RT Smith is struggling, and only playing because there isn’t a better option for right now.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson – DL – LSU
This was the first draft for GM Scott Pioli, and everybody was wondering how the former Patriot executive would turn around this team. He came out swinging, and it’s safe to say that Jackson was a big surprise to many. On draft morning, the word of Jackson going #3 was leaked, but many people thought it was to ridiculous to actually happen. Pioli and the Chiefs felt that Jackson was going to be their version of Richard Seymour. However, Jackson struggled in his transition to the 3-4, and injuries have kept him out of the lineup. He was terrible in his first two years, but slightly improved in year three. However, he still graded out as a very average 3-4 DE, and for the #3 pick in the draft, this can be classified as a bust!