1. Indianapolis Colts 
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Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford
A no-brainer pick for the franchise in the midst of a massive overhaul. The Bill Polian-Peyton Manning era is officially over in Indianapolis and whether Manning remains the starter or not, the future of the Colts will depend on the success of the Stanford prodigy. There won’t be any suspense surrounding the first pick in April, this one is already set. |
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2. St. Louis Rams 
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Matt Kalil – OT – USC
Many experts feel this pick will be up for sale with teams pushing hard for the next highest ranked signal-caller, Robert Griffin III. If the Rams keep this pick, they will be using it to aid Sam Bradford. Many expect the team to seek out a true #1 wide receiver here, but Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon is not in the elite Calvin Johnson/A.J. Green league. No offensive line allowed more sacks during the 2011 season and Matt Kalil provides St. Louis with an elite blind-side protector for the foreseeable future. |
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3. Minnesota Vikings 
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Riley Reiff – OT – Iowa
The Vikings are stuck between a rock and a hard place here. They will be shopping this pick to the highest bidder, presumably a team that would like to move up for Baylor’s Robert Griffin. If they are unable to trade out of this spot, it makes sense that the Vikings would attempt to supplement young Christian Ponder by drafting a receiver or offensive lineman. In this scenario, Minnesota reaches for one of the class’ elite pass blockers. Reiff steps in right away and provides a huge upgrade at left tackle. |
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4. Cleveland Browns 
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Robert Griffin III – QB – Baylor
It seems as if the Browns have been rebuilding perennially since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999. At the root of their struggles: a tumultuous and mediocre history at the Quarterback position. Griffin, the Heisman Trophy winner, has the physical and mental tools to buck the trend in Cleveland. In addition to his ability to stretch the field with his arm, “RG3” possesses the speed the offense so desperately lacks. |
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
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Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama
The argument could be made that the Buccaneers already have their franchise back in LeGarrette Blount, but don’t be shocked if the bowling ball from Alabama proves too tempting with this pick. Richardson is in an elite class in terms of running back prospects, possessing a rare combination of balance, power, vision, and burst. Tampa Bay and new head coach Greg Schiano would like to return to their smash-mouth roots and this pick gives Josh Freeman an incredibly potent weapon. |
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6. Washington Redskins 
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Ryan Tannehill – QB – Texas A&M
From my desk here in Ohio, I can almost hear the collective groan of Redskins fans and casual mock draft readers as they see this pick. Hear me out on this one: last year, very few expected four quarterbacks to come off the board in the first twelve picks. Washington is in dire need of a talented, young player under center and Ryan Tannehill fits the Mike Shanahan mold. Though he spent two years at wide receiver at Texas A&M, Tannehill possesses the necessary size, arm strength, mobility, and natural feel for the position needed to develop into an effective starter at the NFL level. |
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7. Jacksonville Jaguars 
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Quinton Coples – DE – North Carolina
If I were to list the names that currently comprise the Jacksonville defense, you would find yourself in awe with the mediocrity of the group. The Jaguars do have several solid players on that side of the ball, but few standouts. To say Quinton Coples would be an upgrade at left defensive end over free agent Leger Douzable would be a great understatement. Coples, a bit of an underachiever in 2011, has the length, power, quickness, and versatility to be a terror in the NFL if he is able to conquer the mental aspect of the game. |
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8. Carolina Panthers 
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Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU
With Cam Newton on board, Carolina certainly seems to be a franchise heading in the right direction. Unfortunately, however, their defense is filled with gaping holes everywhere from the line to the defensive backfield. After suffering key injuries early, the Panthers managed to finish only 28th in the NFL in total defense. Morris Claiborne is a steal here and as safe a pick as you could ask for. Though he lacks former teammate Patrick Peterson’s combination of size and athleticism, Claiborne may be the better true cover corner at this point. |
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9. Miami Dolphins 
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Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma State
The Dolphins’ two top priorities with this pick are likely to be: 1) a franchise quarterback, 2) the best available pass-rusher. With Justin Blackmon on the board here, Miami will be forced to reconsider. While Brandon Marshall is still a formidable primary target, the team’s offense sure would look a heck of a lot better with a reliable and explosive #2. Blackmon is not a burner, but he is a polished route runner with suddenness, size, an understanding of coverages. |
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10. Buffalo Bills 
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Courtney Upshaw – OLB – Alabama
While no one knows for sure what defensive scheme the Bills will be running next season, the fact remains: adding a pass rusher will be the team’s top priority. Whether it is standing up or with a hand on the ground, Courtney Upshaw is among the most gifted edge rushers in this draft. His performances both at the Senior Bowl and in the National Championship reinforced Upshaw’s status as one of this draft’s best overall defenders. |
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11. Kansas City Chiefs 
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Jonathan Martin – OT – Stanford
The Chiefs caught the injury bug especially badly during the 2011 season, losing key contributors Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry for the season early on. Luckily for Kansas City, their window of opportunity is far from closed in the competitive AFC West. If the team is able to come to terms with free agents Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Carr, the eleventh pick will be free to pursue an offensive lineman. With Branden Albert holding down the left side, Martin would face the responsibility of taking over for Barry Richardson on the right. |
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12. Seattle Seahawks 
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Brandon Weeden – QB – Oklahoma State
As I pass this notion along, I am gearing up for the worst. How can you justify taking a 28-year-old with a pick as high as twelfth overall? Simple: the Seahawks need a quarterback and Brandon Weeden can play. While Seattle is sure to make a strong push for free agent Matt Flynn, they must come out of the draft with a signal-caller should he sign elsewhere. Weeden is everything you want in a quarterback both physically and mentally. When it is all said & done, he may wind up with a career much like Kurt Warner’s. |
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13. Arizona Cardinals 
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David DeCastro – OG – Stanford
Whether or not the team won more games than many expected, the first year of the Kevin Kolb experiment in Arizona has to be considered a massive failure. To protect their huge investment, expect the Cardinals to address their struggling offensive line sooner rather than later. Ideally you would like to land a franchise left tackle with this pick, but David DeCastro is rare amongst offensive guard prospects. He could start from day one and give the team a stalwart on the line for years to come. |
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14. Dallas Cowboys 
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Michael Brockers – DL – LSU
Many will be clamoring for the Cowboys to select the highest rated defensive back on the board, but at this point that appears to be too much of a reach. By using this pick to address holes in their defensive front, Dallas figures to improve against the run and give All-Pro linebacker Demarcus Ware more space to maneuver. In Brockers, the team gets a high upside lineman with all the physical tools necessary to become a dominant force. |
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15. Philadelphia Eagles 
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Luke Kuechly – ILB – Boston College
It is no secret that both Philadelphia fans and coaches were appalled at the play of their linebackers during the 2011 season. The team juggled through rookie starters and was unable to find consistent production anywhere. For the Eagles, it may be time to invest earlier at the position. Luke Kuechly is a tackling machine. Though he has trouble shedding blockers, he has displayed tremendous instincts and range throughout his career at BC. |
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16. New York Jets 
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Michael Floyd – WR – Notre Dame
With reports that the Jets locker room was in complete turmoil late last season, expect some significant roster moves this offseason. Rex Ryan is putting his neck out for Mark Sanchez and it is likely that the team will put an emphasis on finding starting talent at running back, wide receiver, and offensive tackle. Michael Floyd is a tremendous talent with bona fide #1 potential. Though he comes with some character red flags, New York may be willing to set aside their concerns if they must replace both Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. |
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Hey I’m the Locker would not be taken in the 1st round guy, I guess he was because of the rookie salary cap he was (I mean even Christian Ponder was).. but I don’t see a team willing to select Brandon Weeden in the 1st round even though he has fringe 1st round talent.
While I don’t think it’s likely that Brandon Weeden winds up in the top half of the first, I do think he’ll find a home later on in the round. It certainly appears as if the new rookie salary cap could lead to quarterbacks being drafted earlier than they would in years past.
Cordy Glenn is at best a 4th rounder after Jerel Worthy schooled him in the Outback. and as you said, Smith is a slacker. Lions will take either Konz, Burfict, or Hightower. Tulloch has to go!
@Rich – I expect the Skins to make a STRONG push for Griffin. Not projecting trades quite yet though. I also think the Jaguars will wait on WR if Coples is available. Their pass rush has been anemic for years and they’re incredibly thin at DE. I expect Jacksonville will make a push for Dwayne Bowe, Santonio Holmes among others. With this deep class, there will be plenty of WR talent available in the 2nd-4th round.
@Joe One game won’t make Cordy Glenn a fourth rounder. He’s among this class’ top linemen with versatility to play three positions at a high level (LG, RG, RT.) You could find a handful of games in which Jerel Worthy was completely silent. Glenn must improve in several areas, but after a good Senior Bowl week I think you can expect him among the first 32 picks in the draft.
J. Jenkins Or Kirkpatrick will be in Big D!
Blackmon in #9? I think he won’t pass trough Rams, Vikings or Buccs.
And I think Burfict will be selected by Ravens at first round, not Hightower. (I would prefer Burfict, at least)
@Netto Blackmon is a guy people will be torn on. While some regard him as the unanimous top WR in this class, it does not mean he’s a Top 5 pick. This is not a guy in the Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, even Dez Bryant league in terms of talent. He’s more like Michael Crabtree who wound up tenth overall I believe. He was ultra-productive, but it’s unlikely that his size/speed will really stand out at the Combine or his Pro Day. I expect Blackmon to come off the board in the 6-10 range. In my opinion, the only way the Rams or Vikings take him is in a trade down scenario.
@JerryJonesJr –> Perhaps. CB certainly appears to be the biggest need, but if value is not there at 14 then the Cowboys will have to address the position later. Janoris Jenkins not a lock for the first round. In fact, I see him coming off the board (most likely) in the 30-50 range. Kirkpatrick is definitely a possibility but character concerns could turn Dallas off. Michael Brockers likely to go higher than most think.
As a Seahawk fan I would be very disappointed if Seattle picked Weeden at 12. Possibly a pick if they trade down to the late teens or early 20’s. I think the need for a pass rusher will mean a LB/DE who can fill that role. Pete Carrol has stated on several occasions the need to add speed on the D-line. Still not a lot of options at 12 but Weeden would be a real stretch for a top of the 1st pick.
@Alaska Norm –> I’m with you on this one. I don’t think the Seahawks stay at 11/12 and select Weeden. Ideally, I think they’d like to move down into the 20-25 range and still nab the Oklahoma State signal-caller (this assuming they miss out on Flynn.) If they can’t get out of that spot, the pick there could be LSU DT Michael Brockers. The player you are describing as the perfect fit would be Alabama’s Courtney Upshaw, but NC State’s Audie Cole is a nice fit in the second round.
I dont see any way Weeden goes that high. Not even close in fact. Miami takes a lineman…probably offensive. DeCastro doesnt last past ten. Neither does Dre. I mean Claiborne and Dre go top 8, Rieff simply isnt a top five value at all. Thats a bit crazy. Id say the top ten are luck and griffin, coples, dre and claiborne decastro, upshaw, and brockers. The tenth….who knows..trent richardson MAYBE. But teams arent going to go RB that high, not even for richardson. Blackmon is maybe top ten. Cleveland needs a lb. Detroit a corner. SF a wide out or a safety or more outside Linebacking. And where is Ronell Lewis and Bruce Irvin in this mock?
oh ronnell is there. Sorry. Osemele will drop after this week. Bruce irvin is going top two rounds. Trumaine Johnson might, too. I have a feeling nobody likes any of the QBs after Luck Griffin and Tannehill….thats it. The rest are third round.
You left the Browns with no receivers in the first two rounds, I don’t see that happening. Tom Heckart has hinted of this being an offensive draft with hopes of bringing back Hillis. I don’t think the Browns dont come out of the first two rounds with a Receiver.
@JohnSteppling Bruce Irvin (though playing out of position) had a very disappointing season. He’s a one dimensional pass rusher lacking elite size or athleticism. It’s unlikely that 4-3 teams will even look his way in the first three rounds, let alone the first two. It is possible for a 3-4 team to take a chance on Irvin, but he’s by no means a lock for a Top 64 pick. I think you’re in for a surprise. Teams are going to be very, very high on Trent Richardson. He’s not quite as talented, but he is on the Adrian Peterson level as a prospect. Before you start nay-saying that statement, remember Peterson suffered two fairly significant injuries in college. Whether or not the demand for RB is present, I don’t see Richardson falling from the Top 10 picks. He’s a player teams (like Cincinnati) will consider trading up for.
@JohnSteppling DeCastro over Richardson? Really? The demand will always be higher in the Top 10 for a special running back over a top-notch guard prospect. They went that high for Bush, they went that high for Peterson, they went that high for McFadden… Heck, in 2005 three backs came off the board within the Top 5 picks (albeit that was a pretty weak class at the top.) In my mock draft here Cleveland gets a LB, Detroit lands a CB in the second, and San Francisco gets a WR.. So I’m not exactly sure where you were going with that one. Also, I don’t think Weeden goes Top 15, but I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if he came off the board in the 20-25 range. Then again, I would have been one to tell you Christian Ponder wouldn’t crack the Top 15, but he did. Age probably won’t be as big a factor as you think. I had a chance to talk with a former NFL scout about the role age plays in evaluations and he told me it’s just a little if at all. I think you’re trying to over-simplify the draft and seeing as it’s January, there’s still a lot that could happen that prevents us from speaking in “definite” terms.
@Potter If they hold on to Hillis then we have a different story. For months rumors have swirled around Hills & the Browns, only recently has it begun to look as if he may be a part of the team’s plans. I certainly think they could go Floyd or Kendall Wright if they are available at 22, likewise they’re liable to be tempted by Joe Adams, Rueben Randle in the 2nd. At that WR position the team needs speed which luckily can be found in abundance in this draft class.
You heard it here first. Falcons trade Sam Baker and Roddy White to the Jacksonville Jaguars for their first round pick and draft Trent Richardson.
Jags fan here, I like your picks Ryan. Your comments on the Jaguar perspective are pretty much exactly as I see it. One difference is that they may watch for Floyd or Jeffery to slip and trade up with Cleveland (#23) or New England (#27 and #31/32) to get one of them. Jeffery is just what the doctor ordered in Jax. Big, sure handed red zone target. Plaxico Burress if he was a happy upbeat guy.
Well, how high Richardson goes is going to remain a question. I mean the guy is an elite back. Far and away better than mark ingram for example. Richardson is elite. But DeCastro is as good an offensive line propsect as anyone has seen in at least five or six years. So yeah, I can easily see him going ahead of Richardson. In fact I think he will. I still dont agree about Weeden. I mean really, I think Tannehill goes second round. Only RG3 and Luck in the first. What I meant with detroit needing a corner, is that they are going to look to that first. I cant imagine if a top guy is there they wont take him. And why do have Jenkins so low? Character issues tend to be forgotten often and Jenkins has very high end talent. I like the rest of the second round. I think maybe Iloka goes higher. Just his measurables will get him high second round. Mike Martin might not go that high. Scouts like him, but he hasnt much upside. Also, I wonder if a couple other recievers might now crawl into the second….Criner for one, and maybe even tommy streeter (though thats a bit of a longshot). As I say, I think Trumaine Johnson wont last the second. Corners with his size are always seductive. As for Irvin — he played out of position this last year. And in a weird scheme at WV. Same for Julian Miller. I think after the combine Irvin’s stock goes up quickly. And i think he can play outside on a 4-3 or a 3-4. He might always be situational, but the guy is explosive. I dont know if he ever becomes a starting outside backer, but he is going to be a very very good edge rusher.
a couple other thoughts. I wonder too if Minny keeps that pick. Lets say they dont. Then RG3 is gone. Then who does cleveland take? Id say Brockers. But maybe Blackmon. Tampa takes Dre if he’s there or Claiborne. No question. I would bet my who tax check on that. (Which amounts to enough for a cup of coffee…but I digress)….and then the jags. I still think they will want offense. If richardson is there, maybe. Or a Wright. Miami wants line. Defense or offense. I think jonathan martin falls, and Osemele falls. Martin isnt strong enough and Osemele cant play in space. And andy reid is going to have a hard time taking an LB..even one like Kuechly. I say Poe or Cox or Still. And the Pats want defense, yes, but if Konz is there, i bet they jump on him. He is such a Belichek player. For their second pick, yeah, whoever is best d lineman left. I like Packers maybe looking at Crick.
Miami chosing a Wideout is crazy, I think thier going after an OT or a olb/de in 1st
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I could see the Texans drafting a NT here but if Jeffery is still on the board I see him going to Houston.
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