1. Indianapolis Colts 
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Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford
A no-brainer pick for the franchise in the midst of a massive overhaul. The Bill Polian-Peyton Manning era is officially over in Indianapolis and whether Manning remains the starter or not, the future of the Colts will depend on the success of the Stanford prodigy. Andrew Luck is a rarely cerebral quarterback prospect with both the physical and the mental ability to be a perennial All-Pro in the NFL. There won’t be any suspense surrounding the first pick in April, this one is already set.
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2. St. Louis Rams 
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Matt Kalil – OT – USC
Many experts feel this pick will be up for sale with teams pushing hard for the next highest ranked signal-caller, Robert Griffin III. Though that is bound to be a tempting option, the Rams may instead opt to use this pick to aid young franchise quarterback, Sam Bradford. Ultimately, there may not be an offer strong enough to convince them to give up their chance at this blue-chip left tackle. No offensive line allowed more sacks during the 2011 season and Matt Kalil gives St. Louis an elite blind side protector. If the Rams are able to move from this pick, LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers and Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon look to be the likely targets.
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3. Washington Redskins (f/MIN) 
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Robert Griffin III – QB – Baylor
In a move that would surprise few: the Redskins move up here to secure their quarterback of the future. After the team surged to a 3-0 record to start the season, they dropped ten out of the next 13, with a revolving door at quarterback partially to blame. It is unlikely Washington could compete in the NFC East this season without a new face under center. Griffin, the electrifying Heisman Trophy winner, could jump-start the Skins offense from day one.
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4. Cleveland Browns 
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Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama
The Browns just cannot win here. Had Robert Griffin III fell one spot further, Cleveland may have found the solution to a problem that has plagued them since re-entering the NFL in 1999. Trent Richardson, however, is one heck of a consolation prize. One of this draft’s few “can’t miss “players, Richardson is the kind of three-down, smash-mouth runner that is needed in the physical AFC North. The Browns will no doubt be looking for a way out of this pick here, but LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne is sure to draw consideration if they cannot move down.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
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Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU
Last season was an unfortunate step back for a Buccaneers team that came so close to making the playoffs in 2010. Ideally they would like to add a star receiver for promising young Josh Freeman. Without an elite wideout in this class, Tampa Bay instead turns their focus to the other side of the ball. Morris Claiborne is the complete package at cornerback and may be more NFL-ready than former teammate Patrick Peterson. If the Bucs are set on drafting a receiver early, it would not be a surprise to see them trade back and look for Justin Blackmon or Baylor’s Kendall Wright.
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6. Minnesota Vikings (f/WSH) 
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Riley Reiff – OT – Iowa
In this scenario, it is the Vikings, not the St. Louis Rams who accept the trade that seals the fate of Robert Griffin III. Once stuck between a rock and a hard place at third overall, Minnesota is able to add a few picks in the trade. Riley Reiff is not in the elite league as a prospect, but fills a gaping hole at left tackle in front of second year quarterback Christian Ponder. Were the Vikings to go another direction with this pick, defensive tackle Michael Brockers and wide receiver Justin Blackmon appear to be the two most likely options.
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7. Jacksonville Jaguars 
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Courtney Upshaw – DE/OLB – Alabama
The Jaguars turned heads at last year’s draft when they made the move up the board for Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, sealing the fate of former starter David Garrard. While the move did not come to fruition in year one, it is the duty of Jacksonville’s staff and front office to give him a team capable of winning. Many would have the team springing for a receiver here, but without depth or talent at defensive end, I think their first priority has to be to add a pass rusher. A college outside linebacker primarily, Courtney Upshaw is among this class’ top edge rushers and one that could receive snaps at both right end and linebacker. If the Jaguars looked elsewhere, North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples or a wide receiver such as Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd would draw heavy consideration.
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8. Miami Dolphins 
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Ryan Tannehill – QB – Texas A&M
As I type this pick, I am gearing up for a hard time from the Dolphins fans. Nobody wants their team to be the one that springs for a quarterback “too early.” I put those words in parentheses, however, because the concept of a reach is quickly becoming blurred due in part to the rookie wage scale. Last year, few expected four signal-callers off the board within the first twelve picks. Ryan Tannehill is not so different from 2011 eighth overall pick, Jake Locker. Loaded with potential, Tannehill possesses ideal size and mobility as well as strong intangibles. Were Miami to pass here or acquire Peyton Manning or Matt Flynn: defensive end Quinton Coples and Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin would be among the next on their board.
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9. Carolina Panthers 
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Michael Brockers – DT – LSU
The Panthers and rookie phenomenon Cam Newton made quite an impression on the league in 2012, but wins did not pile up for the team. While Carolina now possesses an explosive and exciting offense capable of lighting up the scoreboard, their defense is left with gaping holes. Among their greatest areas of need: defensive tackle. Michael Brockers, while not an elite prospect, may be regarded as the best at his position come April and appears brimming with upside. Were the Panthers set on using this pick to help their young quarterback, Ohio State offensive tackle Mike Adams or Justin Blackmon would be a couple of the top options.
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10. Buffalo Bills 
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Quinton Coples – DE – North Carolina
It should come as a surprise to no Bills fan that the team will be actively pursuing pass rushers both in free agency and early on draft day. As the team looks to run a hybrid 4-3 scheme, their options are limited by a thin class. Quinton Coples is not only a perfect fit at defensive end, but also provides good value with this pick. Immediately, the talented Coples could step in on the defensive line and bolster Buffalo’s pass rush. If the team were interested in a more dynamic edge rusher, they may consider Clemson’s Andre Branch or South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram here.
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11. Seattle Seahawks 
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Fletcher Cox – DT/DE – Mississippi State
In an ideal scenario, the Seahawks will be sitting here with their quarterback situation figured out in late April. Whether it is Peyton Manning or Matt Flynn, Seattle would be wise to act before the draft, where it appears they are unlikely to find much value early. Unfortunately if they do not find help, there will not be another signal caller worthy of consideration in the early first round. Here they opt to add defensive line help in the versatile, athletic Fletcher Cox. A rare athlete for his size, Cox is capable of playing running downs at left end and moving inside to rush the passer on third down. Were the Seahawks really feeling the pressure, they may explore trade options in attempt to land Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden.
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12. Kansas City Chiefs 
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Mike Adams – OT – Ohio State
Perhaps no team was as snake-bitten during the 2011 season more than the Chiefs. After injuries to key players forced Kansas City to stumble out of the gates, the team did a better job picking up the pieces than many expected. Moving forward, retaining free agents Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Carr will be the team’s top priority. Still, they must address the offensive and defensive lines in the draft if they are to return to the top of the AFC West. Mike Adams is a prospect with ideal size and athleticism for the tackle position. Considering the Chiefs’ weakness at the spot, Adams would likely step into the right tackle position from day one. Other options here include Justin Blackmon and Memphis nose tackle Dontari Poe.
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13. Arizona Cardinals 
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Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma State
After what could be considered a modest slide for the draft’s top receiver, the Cardinals are happy to land Justin Blackmon here. Because the first year of the Kevin Kolb experiment was an epic failure in Arizona, adding weapons and protection for their franchise quarterback will have to be the team’s first plan of action. Blackmon falls here due to a lack of elite speed, but he could complement Larry Fitzgerald in ways very reminiscent of former teammate Anquan Boldin. Were the Cardinals to make pass protection their utmost priority, Stanford offensive guard David DeCastro or tackle Jonathan Martin could be the pick.
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14. Dallas Cowboys 
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Dre Kirkpatrick – CB/FS – Alabama
There could be a riot in the streets of Dallas if Jerry Jones & company fail to land the top defensive back on the board here. If the Cowboys are to contend for a Super Bowl in the near future, the first priority must be to shore up a thin and weak secondary. Dre Kirkpatrick may not be the elite cover corner many fans desire, but he is an extremely tough, physical player capable of matching up with anybody physically. Were the Cowboys to pass here, North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins or Melvin Ingram could prove tempting.
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15. Philadelphia Eagles 
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Jerel Worthy – DT – Michigan State
Another pick here that is likely to create a collective groan from the team’s fan base. Defensive Tackle may not be among the areas in which the Eagles need an overhaul. In fact during the 2011 season, the position looked among the deepest on Philadelphia’s roster. Despite that, Derek Landri and Trevor Laws are each free agents and head coach Andy Reid has a history of drafting linemen early. Jerel Worthy may be too good to pass up here, with an intriguing combination of quickness and power. If they do look elsewhere, Georgia offensive lineman Cordy Glenn and Boston College inside linebacker Luke Kuechly look to be options that fit more immediate needs.
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16. New York Jets 
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Michael Floyd – WR – Notre Dame
With reports that the Jets locker room was in complete turmoil late last season, expect some significant roster moves this offseason. Rex Ryan is putting his neck out for Mark Sanchez and it is likely that the team will put an emphasis on finding starting talent at running back, wide receiver, and offensive tackle. Michael Floyd is a tremendous talent with bona fide #1 potential. Though he comes with some character red flags, New York may be willing to set aside their concerns if they must replace both Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. If the Jets look to instead add a young pass rusher with this pick, Southern California’s Nick Perry and Melvin Ingram fit the bill.
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That’s stupid, the Vikings aren’t going to trade back and take Reiff. He’s a RT not a LT. If they trade back they’re going CB or WR.
Thank you for your in depth analysis on why Riley Reiff cannot be viewed as a lady tackle prospect.
Left*, sorry for the typo there.
Hate the first two picks for the Jags. And Poz wasn’t the answer? He played damn fine, and LB is the one position on the team that they have no need at.
This is garbage. Browns must address QB AND WR within first two rounds. I’ll pass on Cordy glenn over Jonathan Martin and Sanu. The browns need explosiveness on offense. Not defense. Zach brown is nice but again, we need offense. Can’t wait until round 3 to hit receiver.
@Vanguard I have to extend an apology to Browns fans. This will be one of the more unsettling drafts you’ve seen out there on the internet. More than likely, Cleveland would shop that 4th pick and move down the board; however, I only decided to include trades for Quarterbacks in this mock. Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn were not factored into these picks at all.
@Dale I received some bad info on Pos that keeps coming up in conversations with Jags’ fans. If I were to change things: cornerback would be a position I’d expect Gene Smith to address there.
Yes, I’d have the Jags go with Coples and one of the 2nd round cbs. Would be very happy with Quick in the third.
Reiff was a TE converted to a OT. His skillset is better suited at RT, Reiff would be good value outside the top 10 as a RT. No way Blackmon makes it out of the top 10
If Zach Brown Stephon Gilmore Burficit and Hightower available when the vikings pick id say pull the trigger on any of them over Randle. Ta’Amu would be great with that second 2nd pick
Brian Quick, Nick Toon, Stephen Hill, Harrison Smith, Markelle Martin, Vontaze Burficit(again)and Boyken are all guys id take over Trumaine Johnson. His arrests make me think of Chris Cook…
@Justin You want to be careful not to think in terms of absolutes in February. Remember four QBs wound up drafted in the top 12 last year, Dez Bryant fell into the 20s in 2010, and LSU DE Tyson Jackson rose into the top three picks in 2009. There are no absolutes before the NFL Combine and it is important to understand that it only takes one team to throw things off. I’m not sure how TE –> OT indicates RT, left tackles Joe Staley and Jason Peters are among many that would suggest otherwise. Protecting the QB has to be the Vikings’ first priority IMO.
I agree that protecting the QB is top priority, but i dont think any OT besides Kalil deserves to be picked top 10.
Ryan I’m a big fan but I’d hate to see the Eagles draft play out like your mock. I understand the Worthy pick in the first, it’s a luxury pick but Andy does love taking lineman and this draft is full of 1st round DT talent. However, your 2nd round picks don’t fill any needs for us, assuming Evan Mathis is resigned. We took Watkins in the first last year and Mathis was the top LG in the NFL last season, why draft a back-up with your 2nd pick? Lavonte David is talented, but doesn’t have the size to play SAM and be a run-stuffer which is what the Eagles need. Broyles in the 3rd could definitely be a steal but the Eagles need a red zone threat more than another slot receiver. I do think you have a very good handle where players will be going come April though, from that perspective this is one of the best mocks I’ve seen yet. Thanks.
No way V.Burfict lasts until round three. Maybe first inside linebacker taken.
@Justin You have to be careful about thinking in terms of absolutes in February. Dez Bryant, who was a more talented prospect than Blackmon, fell into the 20s in the 2010 draft. It’s unlikely that Tyson Alualu was ever mocked close to the top 10 that year also. What I shoot for is a realistic mock draft, not an idealistic one. Not every team will make what fans consider the “best” pick.
@Wayne Unless he absolutely blows the doors off the Combine, there is no way Burfict is drafted before Kuechly and Hightower. The tape never matched the hype in his case.
I see the vikings taking rg.III then trading him to the highest for their picks and their starting left tackle. what do you think of that? that way they fill a need at lt and multiply their picks this year and the next.
I love the Redskins moving to 3 instead of 2.Fisher won’t pass on Kalil and the Vikings would move down.I think they go cb or s in the third.They will address wr in fa.
If Martin and Barron aren’t still on the board, than the Jenkins pick is a good one. But if Martin falls that far, the Lions will absolutely jump at the chance to draft a future LT over a questionable corner.
@Rob The idea of drafting a player than trading his rights is much more NBA than NFL. It’s a nice thought, but probably not a very realistic one.
@Mike That makes sense if they are to in fact believe Martin is a left tackle in the NFL. A lot of different ideas out there on him; many see him more likely to fit on the right side.
Kirkpatrick & Trumaine Johnson in Dallas BABY!!!!!!!
The Lions love drafting the best player available over need. In the second round, do you feel Schwartz is truly the best player available in this scenario? Based on this criteria, who else would they consider.
@Tony I think the Senior Bowl did wonders for Mitchell Schwartz’s stock. Many teams will view him in the mid 2nd-early 3rd range.
@KeepSwinging – Sorry it took me a while to get to your comment. The concept of a luxury pick is fairly subjective. Reid has shown in the past that he prefers to look LB later & while this year could have served as a wake-up call, 15 is still very high for Luke Kuechly. K. Osemele is among the most versatile linemen in this draft, most likely fitting at RT for the Eagles. Lavonte David, despite his size, is a good run stuffing LB and could project to a variety of roles in that Philadelphia defense. I did wonder if Audie Cole would be the better fit there as he shares some similarities. As a native of the Philadelphia area, I’ve been hoping the team would add a big WR for years; however, it seems like they are having much more success with smaller guys. I think you should be careful in assuming Broyles is purely a slot receiver. In my opinion, you can play him anywhere but he gives the Birds a combination of quickness, reliability, & toughness in the slot that they currently lack.
Steelers 1st pick I would love martin to fall to the steelers. As for the next 2, if we do go CB rather go for Fleming at that point much better zone corner and tackler, but both are pretty good. We have a lot of youth and depth and question marks there so no need to add more ?. Rather go back to back Oline picks and make sure the offensive line is ready for more run oriented offense. As for the third pick same thing, lots of ? and guys there. Here I would think there is plenty of value left for us to pick up either a LB, inside or out James Harrison can’t be young forever. Or NT, which we know is a major need.
I’d prefer the Texans take Rueben Randle with their first pick. He’s faster than Sanu and is able to routinely get separation from DB’s, whereas Sanu is not. Just sayin’….
Jamel Fleming’s ok, I guess. I think I’d rather go with Josh Norman, the CB from Coastal Carolina, believe it or not. He tore it up at both the East-West Shrine and the Senior Bowl practices/workouts.
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